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- Ethanol Market Update - 1/12/26
January 14, 2026
Overview
Market Overview
Chicago ethanol futures finished Friday modestly higher across the curve, extending a quiet but constructive recovery from last week’s lows. Gains were orderly and broadly distributed, with the front months leading while deferred contracts followed at a measured pace. Overall price action suggests continued consolidation rather than a decisive trend shift.
Trading activity remained light to moderate, consistent with early-January participation levels. The market continues to respond more to technical positioning and curve structure than to any single fundamental catalyst.
Production & Supply Context
U.S. ethanol production remains steady as plants operate at seasonally normal utilization rates. Margins remain workable, supported by manageable corn inputs and stable coproduct values. There are no widespread reports of disruptions, and inventories appear balanced enough to limit near-term volatility.
The market remains comfortable with current supply levels, though upside sensitivity could increase if demand improves or export flows strengthen later in Q1.
Futures & Curve Structure
Chicago Ethanol (CU) – 1/9 Settlements
Jan ’26: 1.585 (+0.005)
Feb ’26: 1.600 (+0.010)
Mar ’26: 1.630 (+0.0075)
Apr ’26: 1.6625 (+0.0075)
May ’26: 1.6825 (+0.0075)
Jun ’26: 1.6925 (+0.0075)
Jul ’26: 1.6975 (+0.010)
The forward curve remains modestly backward, though the structure continues to flatten as Q1 values firm relative to Q2. Calendar spreads remain narrow, signaling adequate nearby supply and limited urgency from blenders.
Volume & Open Interest
Estimated volume totaled ~2,450 contracts, with activity concentrated in February and March. Open interest rose modestly across several mid-curve months, suggesting incremental length rather than short covering.
Participation remains selective, with most traders favoring spread structures and short-term positioning.
Market Insight
The ethanol market continues to grind higher within a well-defined range. While the recent uptick reflects improved technical tone, the lack of aggressive follow-through highlights ongoing demand caution. Q1 pricing remains capped by seasonal blending dynamics, while Q2 holds a mild premium supported by expectations for stronger gasoline demand later in the year.
Absent a material shift in export demand or an unexpected production event, near-term trade is likely to remain technical and spread-driven.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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