- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 1/16/26
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January 16, 2026
Overview
Market Overview
Ethanol futures finished Thursday largely unchanged, with the curve continuing to consolidate following last week’s sharp selloff. Nearby values stabilized, while the back half of the curve showed marginal firmness, suggesting the market may be attempting to base after recent pressure.
The front end remains weighed down by muted prompt demand and comfortable inventory positioning, while deferred months continue to find modest support from longer-term blending expectations and stable production economics. Overall trade remains orderly, with no signs of stress or forced liquidation.
Production Update
U.S. ethanol production remains steady mid-January, with Liquidity Energy’s internal model showing little change from earlier in the week. Plants continue to run at consistent utilization rates, supported by manageable corn input costs and stable coproduct values.
Estimated Production: ~1.13 MMbpd
Utilization: ~76–77%
Operating Environment: Stable, no widespread outages reported
Despite weaker futures pricing, margins remain workable for most operators, and there is no indication of material production curtailments at this time.
Futures & Curve Structure
Chicago Ethanol (Platts) – 1/15 Settles
Month | Settle | Change |
|---|---|---|
Jan 26 | 1.5350 | Flat |
Feb 26 | 1.5300 | Flat |
Mar 26 | 1.5600 | −0.0025 |
Apr 26 | 1.5925 | −0.0025 |
May 26 | 1.6150 | −0.0025 |
Jun 26 | 1.6275 | −0.0025 |
Jul 26 | 1.6325 | −0.0025 |
Aug 26 | 1.6325 | −0.0025 |
Sep 26 | 1.6325 | −0.0025 |
Oct 26 | 1.6150 | Flat |
Nov 26 | 1.5850 | Flat |
Dec 26 | 1.5650 | +0.0025 |
Curve Metrics
Q1 Avg: ~1.542
Q2 Avg: ~1.612
Q1/Q2: −7.0¢
The curve remains backward but notably flatter than earlier this month. Front spreads have compressed, reflecting adequate nearby supply and limited urgency from blenders.
Volume & Open Interest
Estimated Volume: ~6,300 contracts
Total Open Interest: ~34,000 contracts
Open interest remains healthy despite the recent decline in prices, suggesting the move lower was driven more by positioning and macro pressure than by capitulation.
Market Insight
The ethanol market appears to be transitioning from directional weakness into a consolidation phase. While upside catalysts remain limited in the near term, the lack of follow-through selling suggests downside momentum may be slowing.
Near-term trade is likely to remain rangebound and spread-focused, with participants monitoring corn values, gasoline blending economics, and any shifts in export demand. Producers continue to show discipline on forward sales, while end users appear adequately covered.
Summary
Ethanol futures closed Thursday steady to slightly softer, with Jan ’26 settling at $1.535 and the forward curve holding a flatter backward structure. Production remains stable near 1.13 MMbpd, and cash markets continue to trade in line with futures.
Absent a meaningful demand shock or production disruption, the market is likely to remain technical and rangebound into the latter half of January.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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