Ethanol Market Update - 1/9/26

Overview

Market Overview

Chicago ethanol futures finished Thursday largely mixed and rangebound, with the front of the curve steady to slightly softer while deferred months firmed modestly. The market continues to consolidate after the recent selloff, with price action suggesting stabilization rather than a decisive directional move.

Nearby demand remains adequate but unurgent, while length further out the curve found mild support as summer values edged higher. Overall liquidity was healthy, and trading activity suggests participants remain comfortable operating within established ranges.

Production Update

U.S. ethanol production remains steady into early January. Plants continue to operate at stable utilization rates, supported by manageable corn costs and consistent coproduct demand.

• Estimated Production: ~1.12–1.14 MMbpd

• Utilization: ~76–77%

• Operating Environment: Stable, with no significant disruptions reported

Seasonal post-holiday normalization is underway, but no material slowdown in output has emerged.

Futures & Curve Structure

Chicago Ethanol (Platts) – Jan 8 Settlements

Curve Observations

• Front-month values were flat to slightly softer.

• Summer months (Jun–Sep) firmed modestly, adding structure to the back half.

• The curve remains backward but shallow, reflecting sufficient near-term supply with cautious optimism further out.

Volume & Open Interest

• Estimated Volume: ~5,600 contracts

• Open Interest: Mixed, with modest declines in nearby months and stable positioning further out the curve.

Participation remains healthy, indicating continued engagement from both hedgers and spread traders.

Market Insight

Ethanol continues to trade in a well-defined range, with neither bulls nor bears pressing aggressively. Near-term supply appears well covered, keeping the front of the curve anchored, while deferred values are finding incremental support tied to summer demand expectations and broader energy market stability.

Absent a material shift in exports, blending economics, or production rates, the market is likely to remain technical and spread-driven in the near term.

Technicals

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