Ethanol Market Update - 10/1/25

Overview

Overview

Executive Summary
Ethanol futures opened October steady, with the CU contract settling at $1.9858. Q4 averaged $1.8425, holding a firm 21.75¢ premium over Q1.

Production remains consistent at ~1.096M b/d, with our EIA estimate at 1.096M b/d, compared to last week’s actual 1.091M b/d. Utilization remains near 71%, with output steady in the Midwest.

• Daily Production: ~401,000 MMBTU

• 7-Day Avg: ~401,500 MMBTU

• Utilization: 71%

• Largest Gain: POET – Chancellor

• Largest Drop: Green Plains – Superior

Market Insight

The CU forward curve maintains backwardation into late year:

• Sep/Oct: +2.33¢

• Oct/Nov: +10.25¢

• Nov/Dec: +15.25¢

• Q4/Q1 spread: +21.75¢

Cash markets tracked the futures tone:

• Argo Oct: $1.975 (+6.5¢ vs Nov)

• NYH Sep: $1.951 (~10¢ over CU)

• ITT Sep: $2.0958 (+11¢ vs CU)

• R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS

Strength across Q4 suggests tight late-year balances, with blending demand resilient and exports stable.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/1

Ethanol CU Contract

• Sep: $1.9858 (+0.0233)

• Oct: $1.9625 (+0.1025)

• Nov: $1.8600 (+0.1525)

• Dec: $1.7075 (+0.0850)

• Q4: $1.8425 | Q1: $1.6250 | Q2: $1.6775 | 1H: $1.6525

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.2175

EZ/CU Contract

• Sep: $2.1039 (+0.1181)

• Oct: $2.0900 (+0.1275)

• Nov: $1.9875 (+0.1275)

Argo Market

• Prompt: $1.9900

• Oct: $1.9750 (+0.0650 vs Nov)

• Nov: $1.9100 (+0.1250 vs Dec)

• Dec: $1.7850 (+0.1200 vs Jan)

NYH Market

• Sep: $1.9510 (–0.1373 vs Oct, +0.1025 CU)

• Oct: $2.0883 (+0.0158, +0.1025 CU)

• Nov: $2.0725 (+0.1025, +0.1100 CU)

• Dec: $1.9700 (+0.1525, +0.1100 CU)

ITT Contract

• Sep: $2.0958 (+0.1100) | Sep/Oct: +0.0233

• Oct: $2.0725 (+0.1100) | Oct/Nov: +0.1025

• Nov: $1.9700 (+0.1100) | Nov/Dec: +0.1525

R11 Prompt Market

• TWS: $1.9325

• NWS: $1.9625

• Sep: $1.9858

Technicals

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