- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 10/10/25
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Executive Summary
Ethanol futures softened slightly into Friday’s close, with the CU contract settling at $1.8325, and Q4 averaging $1.7475, maintaining a 13.75¢ premium over Q1. The curve remains backwardated, though momentum has slowed as production steadies and near-term demand normalizes.
National output remains flat week-over-week, with Liquidity Energy’s models projecting 1.063M b/d for next week’s EIA report. That’s a marginal increase from last week’s 1.061M b/d, with utilization holding near 73%.
Daily Production: ~408,000 MMBTU
7-Day Avg: ~409,500 MMBTU
Utilization: ~73%
Largest Gain: Green Plains – Shenandoah
Largest Drop: POET – Chancellor
This projection continues to reflect consistent Midwest operating rates and slightly firmer utilization at large dry-mill facilities.
Model Source | Estimate (M b/d) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
7-Day MMBTU Proxy | 1.063 | Based on aggregate output + 3 kb/d adjustment |
Regional Plant Data | 1.060 | Broadly steady vs last week |
3-Week Weighted Avg | 1.061 | Low variance period |
Market Insight
The ethanol forward curve remains firmly backwardated, though spreads narrowed slightly:
Oct/Nov: +9.25¢
Nov/Dec: +7¢
Dec/Jan: +6.75¢
Q4/Q1: +13.75¢
Cash values tracked futures with light trade volume heading into the weekend. Argo prompt held near $1.99, while NYH and ITT both maintained roughly 11¢ premiums to CU equivalents.
R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS
Steady production and moderate export flow continue to balance market tone as blending demand stabilizes into mid-October.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/10/25
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.8325 | Oct/Nov: +0.0925 |
Nov | 1.7400 | Nov/Dec: +0.0700 |
Dec | 1.6700 | Dec/Jan: +0.0675 |
Jan | 1.6025 | Jan/Feb: +0.0000 |
Feb | 1.6025 | Feb/Mar: –0.0250 |
Mar | 1.6275 | Mar/Apr: –0.0225 |
Apr | 1.6500 | Apr/May: –0.0200 |
May | 1.6700 | May/Jun: –0.0125 |
Jun | 1.6825 | Jun/Jul: –0.0025 |
Jul | 1.6850 | — |
Q4: 1.7475 | Q1: 1.6100 | Q2: 1.6675 | 1H: 1.6400
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.1375 | Q1/Q2: –0.0575
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.9325 | 0.1000 |
Nov | 1.8500 | 0.1100 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.9900 | — |
Nov | 1.7850 | Nov/Dec: +0.0800 |
Dec | 1.7050 | Dec/Jan: +0.0675 |
Jan | 1.6375 | Jan/Feb: +0.0350 |
Feb | 1.6025 | Feb/Mar: –0.0125 |
Mar | 1.6150 | Mar/Apr: –0.0250 |
Apr | 1.6400 | Apr/May: –0.0200 |
May | 1.6600 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.9425 | Nov/Dec: +0.0925 | 0.1100 |
Dec | 1.8500 | Dec/Jan: +0.0700 | 0.1100 |
Jan | 1.7800 | Jan/Feb: +0.0675 | 0.1100 |
Feb | 1.7125 | Feb/Mar: +0.0000 | 0.1100 |
Mar | 1.7125 | Mar/Apr: –0.0250 | 0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7375 | Apr/May: –0.0225 | 0.1100 |
May | 1.7600 | May/Jun: –0.0200 | 0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7800 | Jun/Jul: –0.0125 | 0.1100 |
Jul | 1.7925 | Jul/Aug: +0.1075 | 0.1100 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.9425 | 0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.0925 |
Nov | 1.8500 | 0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.0700 |
Dec | 1.7800 | 0.1100 | Dec/Jan: +0.0675 |
Jan | 1.7125 | 0.1100 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Outlook
Market sentiment remains firm despite modest futures softness. Physical premiums persist across key racks, while production remains in equilibrium with domestic and export pull.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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