- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
- Posts
- Ethanol Market Update - 10/13/25
In partnership with
October 13, 2025
Overview
Overview
The Q4 average printed $1.7725, maintaining a 15.25¢ premium over Q1. While trading volumes remained light, backwardation persisted across the curve as blending margins tightened slightly.
Production strengthened late last week, and we project a notable rebound in this week’s EIA data. Our EIA production estimate stands at 1.151M barrels per day, up ~80,000 b/d (+7.5%) from last week’s 1.071M b/d, supported by increased Midwest output and improved utilization rates.
Production Metrics
Daily Output: ~443,765 MMBTU
7-Day Average: ~441,200 MMBTU
Utilization: 76%
Largest Gain: Dakota Ethanol
Largest Drop: Red Trail Energy LLC
Plant-level production data indicate strong consistency across central Illinois and Nebraska, with western producers running near capacity following earlier maintenance slowdowns.
Market Insight
The CU forward curve remains backwardated, but spreads eased marginally as front-month values found equilibrium:
Oct/Nov: +9.0¢
Nov/Dec: +8.5¢
Q4/Q1: +15.25¢
Cash Markets:
Argo Nov: $1.815 (+8.75¢ vs Dec)
NYH Nov: $1.97 (+11¢ vs CU)
ITT Oct: $1.97 (+11¢ vs CU)
R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS
Steady export flows and stable domestic liftings kept spot demand firm, with physical basis unchanged across most delivery points.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/13
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Change | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct | $1.8600 | — | — |
Nov | $1.7700 | — | +0.0900 (Oct/Nov) |
Dec | $1.6850 | — | +0.0850 (Nov/Dec) |
Q4 | $1.7725 | — | |
Q1 | $1.6200 | — | |
Q2 | $1.6775 | — | |
1H | $1.6500 | — | |
Q4/Q1 Spread | +0.1525 | — |
EZ/CU Contract
Month | Settle | Diff |
|---|---|---|
Oct | $1.9600 | +$0.10 |
Nov | $1.8800 | +$0.11 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Nov | $1.8150 | +$0.0875 (Nov/Dec) |
Dec | $1.7275 | +$0.0775 (Dec/Jan) |
Jan | $1.6500 | +$0.0375 (Jan/Feb) |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | Diff (NYH/CU) |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | $1.9700 | +$0.0900 | +$0.11 |
Dec | $1.8800 | +$0.0850 | +$0.11 |
Jan | $1.7950 | +$0.0725 | +$0.11 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct | $1.9700 | +$0.11 | +$0.09 |
Nov | $1.8800 | +$0.11 | +$0.085 |
Dec | $1.7950 | +$0.11 | +$0.0725 |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technicals
Support for November CU remains near $1.74, with resistance at $1.88. Q4 backwardation continues to signal firm physical balances, though market direction may hinge on Wednesday’s EIA release confirming increased production levels.
Liquidity Energy EIA Estimate
📊 Estimate: 1.151 million barrels per day
📈 Change: +80,000 b/d (+7.5%) week-over-week
⚙️ Utilization: 76%
Technicals
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
Your career will thank you.
Over 4 million professionals start their day with Morning Brew—because business news doesn’t have to be boring.
Each daily email breaks down the biggest stories in business, tech, and finance with clarity, wit, and relevance—so you're not just informed, you're actually interested.
Whether you’re leading meetings or just trying to keep up, Morning Brew helps you talk the talk without digging through social media or jargon-packed articles. And odds are, it’s already sitting in your coworker’s inbox—so you’ll have plenty to chat about.
It’s 100% free and takes less than 15 seconds to sign up, so try it today and see how Morning Brew is transforming business media for the better.
Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply