- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 10/14/25
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October 14, 2025
Overview
Overview
Ethanol futures eased slightly to start the week, with the CU contract settling at $1.855 and the Q4 average printing $1.7625, maintaining a 15¢ premium over Q1. The forward curve remains backwardated, reflecting steady blending demand and moderated inventories ahead of the EIA report.
Production continues to track higher, driven by improved Midwest utilization. Our EIA estimate for this week’s report is 1.148M b/d, slightly softer than yesterday’s model output, but still well above last week’s 1.071M b/d.
Production Summary:
Daily Output: ~442,900 MMBTU
7-Day Avg: ~442,100 MMBTU
Utilization: 75.8%
Largest Gain: Dakota Ethanol
Largest Drop: Red Trail Energy LLC
Market Insight
Futures remain backwardated through year-end, but spreads narrowed modestly:
Oct/Nov: +9.5¢
Nov/Dec: +8.5¢
Q4/Q1: +15.0¢
Physical markets tracked similar softness, as Argo and NYH values adjusted to match the curve. Overall liquidity was thin, with traders awaiting Thursday’s EIA data.
EIA Production Estimate
Converting today’s 442,900 MMBTU/day (vs. baseline 401,000 ≈ 1.09M b/d):
After calibration for model bias (–4.5%), the adjusted estimate equals 1.148M b/d.
📊 Coolidge Report Estimate: 1.148 million barrels per day
📈 Change: +77,000 b/d (+7.2%) vs last week’s 1.071M b/d
⚙️ Utilization: 75.8%
Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/14
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.855 | +0.095 (Oct/Nov) |
Nov | 1.760 | +0.085 (Nov/Dec) |
Dec | 1.675 | +0.070 (Dec/Jan) |
Jan | 1.605 | +0.000 (Jan/Feb) |
Feb | 1.605 | –0.025 (Feb/Mar) |
Mar | 1.630 | –0.025 (Mar/Apr) |
Apr | 1.655 | –0.020 (Apr/May) |
May | 1.675 | –0.0125 (May/Jun) |
Jun | 1.6875 | –0.005 (Jun/Jul) |
Jul | 1.6925 | — |
Q4: 1.7625 | Q1: 1.6125 | Q2: 1.6725 | 1H: 1.6425
Q4/Q1: +0.1500 | Q1/Q2: –0.0600
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.955 | +0.10 |
Nov | 1.865 | +0.105 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.990 | — |
Nov | 1.8075 | +0.090 (Nov/Dec) |
Dec | 1.7175 | +0.0775 (Dec/Jan) |
Jan | 1.640 | +0.035 (Jan/Feb) |
Feb | 1.605 | –0.0125 (Feb/Mar) |
Mar | 1.6175 | –0.025 (Mar/Apr) |
Apr | 1.6425 | –0.0225 (Apr/May) |
May | 1.665 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.965 | +0.095 | +0.11 |
Dec | 1.870 | +0.085 | +0.11 |
Jan | 1.785 | +0.070 | +0.11 |
Feb | 1.715 | +0.000 | +0.11 |
Mar | 1.715 | –0.025 | +0.11 |
Apr | 1.740 | –0.025 | +0.11 |
May | 1.765 | –0.020 | +0.11 |
Jun | 1.785 | –0.0125 | +0.11 |
Jul | 1.7975 | +0.105 | +0.11 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.965 | +0.11 | +0.095 |
Nov | 1.870 | +0.11 | +0.085 |
Dec | 1.785 | +0.11 | +0.070 |
Jan | 1.715 | +0.11 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technicals
Ethanol futures remain rangebound, consolidating near $1.85–$1.90 on CU and $1.70–$1.80 on Q4. Technical support sits at $1.74; resistance at $1.87. A stronger production number could pressure Q4 further if inventories build.
Summary
Ethanol markets enter mid-October stable, with modest gains in production offsetting demand softness. The forward curve remains backwardated, suggesting firm late-year fundamentals, but a rebound in output could soften Q1 values in the coming weeks.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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