- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 10/15/25
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October 16, 2025
Overview
Overview
Ethanol futures softened midweek as the CU contract settled at $1.83, while the Q4 average posted $1.73, maintaining a 13¢ premium to Q1. The forward curve remains backwardated but with narrower spreads as traders anticipate another strong EIA production report.
Production data continues to indicate elevated output across the Midwest. Our updated model projects 1.153M barrels per day for this week’s EIA report, up roughly +80k b/d (+7.5%) from last week’s 1.071M b/d reading.
Production Summary:
Daily Output: ~444,050 MMBTU
7-Day Avg: ~443,600 MMBTU
Utilization: 76.1%
Largest Gain: POET – Chancellor
Largest Drop: Glacial Lakes Energy – Mina
Market Insight
The CU curve remains backwardated, reflecting ongoing late-year tightness, though the near-term structure flattened modestly:
Oct/Nov: +11.5¢
Nov/Dec: +7.0¢
Q4/Q1: +13.0¢
Cash markets mirrored futures, with Argo softening slightly while NYH remained firm on limited prompt availability.
EIA Production Estimate
Using today’s modeled conversion (1.09M b/d baseline at 401,000 MMBTU/day):
After adjusting for a consistent –4.3% model bias, our Liquidity Energy EIA Estimate is:
📊 1.153 million barrels per day
📈 Change: +82k b/d (+7.7%) week-over-week
⚙️ Utilization: 76.1%
This aligns closely with plant-level reporting showing higher run rates in the Western Corn Belt and Northern Plains.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/15
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.830 | +0.115 (Oct/Nov) |
Nov | 1.715 | +0.070 (Nov/Dec) |
Dec | 1.645 | +0.0575 (Dec/Jan) |
Jan | 1.5875 | –0.005 (Jan/Feb) |
Feb | 1.5925 | –0.025 (Feb/Mar) |
Mar | 1.6175 | –0.025 (Mar/Apr) |
Apr | 1.6425 | –0.020 (Apr/May) |
May | 1.6625 | –0.0125 (May/Jun) |
Jun | 1.675 | –0.005 (Jun/Jul) |
Jul | 1.680 | — |
Q4: 1.730 | Q1: 1.600 | Q2: 1.660 | 1H: 1.630
Q4/Q1: +0.130 | Q1/Q2: –0.060
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.930 | +0.100 |
Nov | 1.815 | +0.100 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.990 | — |
Nov | 1.7725 | +0.0925 (Nov/Dec) |
Dec | 1.680 | +0.0625 (Dec/Jan) |
Jan | 1.6175 | +0.0275 (Jan/Feb) |
Feb | 1.590 | –0.015 (Feb/Mar) |
Mar | 1.605 | –0.025 (Mar/Apr) |
Apr | 1.630 | –0.0225 (Apr/May) |
May | 1.6525 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.940 | +0.115 | +0.11 |
Dec | 1.825 | +0.070 | +0.11 |
Jan | 1.755 | +0.0575 | +0.11 |
Feb | 1.6975 | –0.005 | +0.11 |
Mar | 1.7025 | –0.025 | +0.11 |
Apr | 1.7275 | –0.025 | +0.11 |
May | 1.7525 | –0.020 | +0.11 |
Jun | 1.7725 | –0.0125 | +0.11 |
Jul | 1.785 | +0.105 | +0.11 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.940 | +0.11 | +0.115 |
Nov | 1.825 | +0.11 | +0.070 |
Dec | 1.755 | +0.11 | +0.0575 |
Jan | 1.6975 | +0.11 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technicals
The front-month CU remains technically supported near $1.72, with resistance at $1.86. Q4 backwardation has eased but remains constructive for physical demand, with MACD flattening and RSI near 47, indicating neutral momentum heading into the EIA release.
Summary
Ethanol markets traded quietly midweek, with fundamentals pointing to another increase in production. Firm blending demand continues to underpin values into November, while spreads remain supported by strong late-year drawdowns.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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