- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 10/16/25
Overview
Ethanol futures eased modestly on Wednesday, with the CU contract settling at $1.8275. The Q4 average printed $1.725, holding a 13.25¢ premium to Q1 as the backwardated structure persisted into late year.
Trading was subdued ahead of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, though near-term strength in Midwest pricing continued to reflect strong production runs and steady domestic blending demand.
Liquidity Energy’s revised production model indicates a slight pullback to 1.142M b/d for the upcoming EIA release — down ~11k b/d (-1.0%) from last week’s actual 1.153M b/d, suggesting output has plateaued near recent highs.
Production Metrics:
Daily Output: ~438,800 MMBTU
7-Day Average: ~439,250 MMBTU
Utilization: 75.2%
Largest Gain: Marquis Energy – Hennepin
Largest Drop: Valero – Albion
Market Insight
The CU forward curve remains backwardated but has narrowed slightly, reflecting balanced spot inventories and steady offtake:
Oct/Nov: +11.75¢
Nov/Dec: +7.0¢
Q4/Q1: +13.25¢
Cash values were broadly stable. Argo Nov traded at $1.7675, while NYH Nov printed $1.9375, maintaining its ~11¢ premium to CU. ITT Oct settled $1.9375, aligning with spot values.
Export activity remains firm with stable FOB Gulf offers, while domestic rail loadings were unchanged week-over-week.
EIA Production Estimate
The Liquidity Energy model continues to reflect incremental volatility in the 1.10–1.16M b/d range. For this week, integrated plant-level data and updated gas input calculations yield the following:
📊 EIA Production Estimate: 1.142 million barrels per day
📈 Change: –11,000 b/d (–1.0%) vs last week’s 1.153M
⚙️ Utilization: 75.2%
🔥 Daily Output: ~438,800 MMBTU
Plant runs remain elevated for mid-October, with above-average throughput in the Western Corn Belt and slightly lower utilization in the East.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/15
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.8275 | +0.1175 (Oct/Nov) |
Nov | 1.710 | +0.070 (Nov/Dec) |
Dec | 1.640 | +0.060 (Dec/Jan) |
Jan | 1.580 | –0.005 (Jan/Feb) |
Feb | 1.585 | –0.025 (Feb/Mar) |
Mar | 1.610 | –0.025 (Mar/Apr) |
Apr | 1.635 | –0.020 (Apr/May) |
May | 1.655 | –0.0125 (May/Jun) |
Jun | 1.6675 | –0.005 (Jun/Jul) |
Jul | 1.6725 | — |
Q4: 1.725 | Q1: 1.5925 | Q2: 1.6525 | 1H: 1.6225
Q4/Q1: +0.1325 | Q1/Q2: –0.060
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.9275 | +0.100 |
Nov | 1.815 | +0.105 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.990 | — |
Nov | 1.7675 | +0.0925 (Nov/Dec) |
Dec | 1.675 | +0.065 (Dec/Jan) |
Jan | 1.610 | +0.0275 (Jan/Feb) |
Feb | 1.5825 | –0.015 (Feb/Mar) |
Mar | 1.5975 | –0.025 (Mar/Apr) |
Apr | 1.6225 | –0.0225 (Apr/May) |
May | 1.645 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.9375 | +0.1175 | +0.110 |
Dec | 1.820 | +0.070 | +0.110 |
Jan | 1.750 | +0.060 | +0.110 |
Feb | 1.690 | –0.005 | +0.110 |
Mar | 1.695 | –0.025 | +0.110 |
Apr | 1.720 | –0.025 | +0.110 |
May | 1.745 | –0.020 | +0.110 |
Jun | 1.765 | –0.0125 | +0.110 |
Jul | 1.7775 | +0.105 | +0.110 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.9375 | +0.110 | +0.1175 |
Nov | 1.820 | +0.110 | +0.070 |
Dec | 1.750 | +0.110 | +0.060 |
Jan | 1.690 | +0.110 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technicals
The CU curve remains technically stable, consolidating between $1.80–1.85, with momentum indicators trending neutral.
RSI sits at 46, while MACD has flattened, signaling low volatility and positioning ahead of the EIA data.
Key support: $1.70 | Resistance: $1.86
Backwardation remains constructive for late-year pricing, and firm NYH differentials continue to suggest sustained blending demand into Q1.
Summary
Ethanol futures steadied midweek, holding near recent highs as production remains historically strong but plateauing.
With utilization above 75% and demand stable, the ethanol complex continues to reflect solid fundamentals heading into Q4.
A minor production dip in tomorrow’s EIA release is unlikely to materially impact market tone, with the curve remaining healthy and regional cash markets well-supported.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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