- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
- Posts
- Ethanol Market Update - 10/21/25
November 5, 2025
For the upcoming report week, our adjusted forecast points to 1.115M b/d, reflecting marginal throughput recovery as Midwest run rates stabilize.
Production Metrics:
Daily Output: ~431,200 MMBTU
7-Day Average: ~431,800 MMBTU
Utilization: 74.1%
Largest Gain: Flint Hills – Fairmont
Largest Drop: POET – Coon Rapids
Market Insight
Futures continue to show moderate backwardation into late Q4, with spreads narrowing slightly:
Oct/Nov: +13.0¢
Nov/Dec: +6.0¢
Q4/Q1: +12.25¢
Cash markets reflected a calm tone, with Argo Nov settling $1.755, down 1¢ on the day, and NYH Nov printing $1.93, still maintaining its 11¢ premium to the CU contract. ITT Oct finished at $1.93, in line with prior sessions.
The recent softening in energy futures and RIN values weighed slightly on prompt ethanol margins, but Midwest demand fundamentals remain firm.
EIA Production Estimate
Our model incorporates updated MMBTU conversion factors and production-weighted regional adjustments. After normalizing for gas input variability, the current projection yields:
📊 EIA Production Estimate: 1.115 million barrels per day
📈 Change: +7,000 b/d (+0.6%) vs current EIA print
⚙️ Utilization: 74.1%
🔥 Daily Output: ~431,200 MMBTU
We continue to see production running near seasonal highs with no major downtime expected through month-end.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/20
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.820 | +0.130 (Oct/Nov) |
Nov | 1.690 | +0.060 (Nov/Dec) |
Dec | 1.630 | +0.0525 (Dec/Jan) |
Jan | 1.5775 | –0.005 (Jan/Feb) |
Feb | 1.5825 | –0.025 (Feb/Mar) |
Mar | 1.6075 | –0.025 (Mar/Apr) |
Apr | 1.6325 | –0.0225 (Apr/May) |
May | 1.655 | –0.0125 (May/Jun) |
Jun | 1.6675 | –0.005 (Jun/Jul) |
Jul | 1.6725 | — |
Q4: 1.7125 | Q1: 1.5900 | Q2: 1.6525 | 1H: 1.6225
Q4/Q1: +0.1225 | Q1/Q2: –0.0625
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.920 | +0.100 |
Nov | 1.790 | +0.100 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.990 | — |
Nov | 1.755 | +0.095 (Nov/Dec) |
Dec | 1.660 | +0.0575 (Dec/Jan) |
Jan | 1.6025 | +0.0225 (Jan/Feb) |
Feb | 1.580 | –0.015 (Feb/Mar) |
Mar | 1.595 | –0.025 (Mar/Apr) |
Apr | 1.620 | –0.025 (Apr/May) |
May | 1.645 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.930 | +0.130 | +0.110 |
Dec | 1.800 | +0.060 | +0.110 |
Jan | 1.740 | +0.0525 | +0.110 |
Feb | 1.6875 | –0.005 | +0.110 |
Mar | 1.6925 | –0.025 | +0.110 |
Apr | 1.7175 | –0.025 | +0.110 |
May | 1.7425 | –0.0225 | +0.110 |
Jun | 1.765 | –0.0125 | +0.110 |
Jul | 1.7775 | +0.105 | +0.110 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.930 | +0.110 | +0.130 |
Nov | 1.800 | +0.110 | +0.060 |
Dec | 1.740 | +0.110 | +0.0525 |
Jan | 1.6875 | +0.110 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technicals
The CU curve remains range-bound between $1.78 and $1.85, with MACD flattening and RSI steady near 47. Short-term resistance sits at $1.835, with near-term support near $1.69 (Nov).
The structure remains constructive — modest softness in deferred spreads suggests equilibrium rather than weakness, with Q4 pricing still reflecting firm late-year blending demand.
Summary
Ethanol futures closed the week steady to slightly lower as production held near seasonal highs and cash markets eased modestly.
Backwardation remains healthy, supported by sustained domestic and export demand.
The ethanol complex remains technically balanced heading into the final third of October, with firm Midwest utilization and flat-to-improving coastal offtake suggesting continued market stability.
Technicals
|
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply