Ethanol Market Update - 10/22/25

Overview

Overview

Ethanol futures steadied midweek, with the CU contract settling at $1.84, while Q4 averaged $1.7575, holding a 12.5¢ premium to Q1.
The market remains backwardated across the forward curve, though spreads have narrowed slightly as production trends stabilize and export demand softens modestly.

Production Metrics:

• Daily Output: ~435,400 MMBTU

• 7-Day Avg: ~435,800 MMBTU

• Utilization: 75.5%

• Largest Gain: Green Plains – Atkinson

• Largest Drop: Marquis Energy – Hennepin

Market Insight

The CU forward curve remains moderately backwardated, maintaining firm nearby values:

• Oct/Nov: +8.5¢

• Nov/Dec: +7.5¢

• Q4/Q1: +12.5¢

Cash markets tracked the slight softness in futures:

• Argo Nov: $1.7975 (+8.0¢ vs Dec)

• NYH Nov: $1.950 (+8.5¢ vs Dec)

• ITT Oct: $1.950 (+11¢ vs CU)

• R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS

Futures volume was moderate with light profit-taking ahead of the weekly EIA report. Despite lower export bookings, blending economics remain favorable amid resilient gasoline demand.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/22

Ethanol CU Contract

Q4: 1.7575 | Q1: 1.6325 | Q2: 1.695 | 1H: 1.665
Q4/Q1: +0.125 | Q1/Q2: –0.0625

EZ/CU Contract

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

R11 Prompt

• TWS: $1.9325

• NWS: $1.9625

Technicals

The CU curve remains rangebound between $1.75–$1.85, with momentum stabilizing after early-week softness. RSI has rebounded to 48, while MACD shows a slight bullish crossover.

Key resistance: $1.86 (Oct)
Support: $1.73 (Nov)

With backwardation intact and flat NYH spreads, futures appear technically neutral heading into the EIA report.

Summary

Ethanol futures were steady, with Q4 maintaining a 12.5¢ premium to Q1 and production holding firm near 1.12M b/d.
Cash markets remain balanced, and blending economics continue to support sustained output levels into late October.

The market enters report day on solid footing, with backwardation intact and deferred spreads hinting at tight year-end balances.

Technicals

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