- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 10/24/25
November 5, 2025
Overview
Overview
Ethanol futures were steady to slightly higher into the weekend, with the CU contract settling at $1.85 and Q4 averaging $1.7775, maintaining a 13.75¢ premium to Q1.
Backwardation remains intact across the curve as domestic production holds firm and regional inventories tighten slightly.
Refined production model now projects EIA ethanol output at 1.122 million barrels per day, an increase of +4,000 b/d (+0.4%) from last week’s reported 1.118M b/d. Utilization remains near 75.8%, indicating strong run rates across most Midwest facilities.
Production Metrics:
Daily Output: ~436,100 MMBTU
7-Day Average: ~435,900 MMBTU
Utilization: 75.8%
Largest Gain: Cardinal Ethanol – Union City
Largest Drop: POET – Laddonia
Market Insight
The CU curve remains seasonally backwardated but slightly flatter than last week as deferred months stabilize.
Oct/Nov: +6.5¢
Nov/Dec: +9.0¢
Q4/Q1: +13.75¢
Physical markets followed the futures tone, with regional basis mixed but stable:
Argo Nov: $1.8175 (+7.75¢ vs Dec)
NYH Nov: $1.960 (+6.5¢ vs Dec)
ITT Oct: $1.960 (+11¢ vs CU)
R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS
Spot values at key blending hubs remain firm despite lower gasoline cracks, supported by export interest into the Caribbean and Gulf markets.
EIA Production Estimate
Liquidity Energy’s updated regional throughput and conversion model yields the following:
📊 EIA Production Estimate: 1.122 million barrels per day
📈 Change: +4,000 b/d (+0.4%) vs last week’s 1.118M
⚙️ Utilization: 75.8%
🔥 Daily Output: ~436,100 MMBTU
Production remains consistent with seasonal highs, reflecting favorable plant economics and stable corn basis levels across most of the Corn Belt.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/23
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.850 | +0.065 (Oct/Nov) |
Nov | 1.785 | +0.090 (Nov/Dec) |
Dec | 1.695 | +0.0675 (Dec/Jan) |
Jan | 1.6275 | –0.0075 (Jan/Feb) |
Feb | 1.635 | –0.025 (Feb/Mar) |
Mar | 1.660 | –0.025 (Mar/Apr) |
Apr | 1.685 | –0.0225 (Apr/May) |
May | 1.7075 | –0.0125 (May/Jun) |
Jun | 1.720 | –0.005 (Jun/Jul) |
Jul | 1.725 | — |
Q4: 1.7775 | Q1: 1.640 | Q2: 1.705 | 1H: 1.6725
Q4/Q1: +0.1375 | Q1/Q2: –0.065
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.940 | +0.090 |
Nov | 1.875 | +0.090 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.990 | — |
Nov | 1.8175 | +0.0775 (Nov/Dec) |
Dec | 1.740 | +0.0775 (Dec/Jan) |
Jan | 1.6625 | +0.030 (Jan/Feb) |
Feb | 1.6325 | –0.015 (Feb/Mar) |
Mar | 1.6475 | –0.025 (Mar/Apr) |
Apr | 1.6725 | –0.025 (Apr/May) |
May | 1.6975 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.960 | +0.065 | +0.110 |
Dec | 1.895 | +0.090 | +0.110 |
Jan | 1.805 | +0.0675 | +0.110 |
Feb | 1.7375 | –0.0075 | +0.110 |
Mar | 1.745 | –0.025 | +0.110 |
Apr | 1.770 | –0.025 | +0.110 |
May | 1.795 | –0.0225 | +0.110 |
Jun | 1.8175 | –0.0125 | +0.110 |
Jul | 1.830 | +0.105 | +0.110 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.960 | +0.110 | +0.065 |
Nov | 1.895 | +0.110 | +0.090 |
Dec | 1.805 | +0.110 | +0.0675 |
Jan | 1.7375 | +0.110 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technicals
Ethanol futures held firm within a tight range, with momentum indicators flattening as RSI sits near 51.
The market shows strong support at $1.73 (Nov) and resistance near $1.86 (Oct).
Deferred structure remains constructive, reinforcing Q4 strength relative to early 2026.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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