- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 10/27/25
Executive Summary
Ethanol futures closed the week slightly firmer, with the CU contract settling at $1.85, while Q4 averaged $1.7775, holding a 13.75¢ premium to Q1.
Backwardation persisted across the forward curve as ethanol production remained robust and domestic blending demand continued to support near-term values.
Coolidge Report’s updated modeling projects EIA ethanol production at 1.122 million barrels per day, up modestly from last week’s 1.118M b/d. Utilization edged higher to 75.8%, with consistent operating rates across the Midwest and limited reported downtime.
Production Overview
Metric | Value | Δ vs Last Week |
|---|---|---|
EIA Production Estimate | 1.122M b/d | +0.004M b/d (+0.4%) |
Utilization | 75.8% | +0.6% |
Daily Output | ~436,100 MMBTU | +0.2% |
7-Day Avg | ~435,900 MMBTU | +0.3% |
Largest Gain | Cardinal Ethanol – Union City | — |
Largest Drop | POET – Laddonia | — |
Production consistency underscores the stability of Q4 operating economics, while favorable corn basis levels and improved rail logistics continue to underpin throughput.
Market Insight
The CU forward curve remained backwardated, though slightly flatter than earlier in the week:
Oct/Nov: +6.5¢
Nov/Dec: +9.0¢
Q4/Q1: +13.75¢
Cash and physical markets moved in tandem with futures, supported by continued export inquiries and strong blending economics:
Argo Nov: $1.8175 (+7.75¢ vs Dec)
NYH Nov: $1.960 (+6.5¢ vs Dec)
ITT Oct: $1.955 (+11¢ vs CU)
R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS
Export activity into the Gulf and Caribbean remains healthy, while Midwest inventories remain manageable despite steady output.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/24
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.850 | +0.065 |
Nov | 1.785 | +0.090 |
Dec | 1.695 | +0.0675 |
Jan | 1.6275 | –0.0075 |
Feb | 1.635 | –0.025 |
Mar | 1.660 | –0.025 |
Apr | 1.685 | –0.0225 |
May | 1.7075 | –0.0125 |
Jun | 1.720 | –0.005 |
Jul | 1.725 | — |
Q4: 1.7775 | Q1: 1.640 | Q2: 1.705 | 1H: 1.6725
Q4/Q1: +0.1375 | Q1/Q2: –0.065
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.940 | +0.090 |
Nov | 1.875 | +0.090 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.990 | — |
Nov | 1.8175 | +0.0775 |
Dec | 1.740 | +0.0775 |
Jan | 1.6625 | +0.030 |
Feb | 1.6325 | –0.015 |
Mar | 1.6475 | –0.025 |
Apr | 1.6725 | –0.025 |
May | 1.6975 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.960 | +0.065 | +0.110 |
Dec | 1.895 | +0.090 | +0.110 |
Jan | 1.805 | +0.0675 | +0.110 |
Feb | 1.7375 | –0.0075 | +0.110 |
Mar | 1.745 | –0.025 | +0.110 |
Apr | 1.770 | –0.025 | +0.110 |
May | 1.795 | –0.0225 | +0.110 |
Jun | 1.8175 | –0.0125 | +0.110 |
Jul | 1.830 | +0.105 | +0.110 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.960 | +0.110 | +0.065 |
Nov | 1.895 | +0.110 | +0.090 |
Dec | 1.805 | +0.110 | +0.0675 |
Jan | 1.7375 | +0.110 | — |
R11 Prompt Market
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technical Outlook
Ethanol futures remain technically neutral, consolidating within a $1.76–$1.86 range.
RSI sits at 50, indicating a balanced market. Support is evident near $1.73 (Nov), while resistance remains at $1.86 (Oct).
Momentum indicators suggest limited directional bias ahead of next week’s EIA release, though deferred spreads point toward mild structural tightness into year-end.
Outlook
Ethanol prices remain supported by firm production, balanced inventories, and consistent export flows.
Liquidity Energy expects production to remain above 1.11M b/d into November, with Q4 utilization trending near 76%.
Backwardation remains a defining feature of the market, with Q4 holding a strong 13.75¢ premium to Q1.
Margins remain positive, especially in the Eastern Corn Belt, and basis stability should continue to encourage high utilization through month-end.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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