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- Ethanol Market Update - 10/28/25
Market Overview
Ethanol futures were mostly steady Tuesday, with the CU contract settling at $1.84, while Q4 averaged $1.7675, maintaining a 12.25¢ premium to Q1.
Backwardation remains consistent as Midwest output holds near recent highs and domestic inventory drawdowns continue.
Modeling now projects EIA ethanol production at 1.124 million b/d, up +2,000 b/d (+0.2%) from last week’s 1.122 M b/d.
Plant utilization ticked slightly higher to 76.0 %, reflecting a steady operating environment across the Corn Belt.
Production Metrics
Metric | Value | Δ vs Prior Week |
|---|---|---|
EIA Production Estimate | 1.124 M b/d | +0.002 M b/d (+0.2 %) |
Utilization | 76.0 % | +0.2 % |
Daily Output | ≈ 437,000 MMBTU | +0.2 % |
7-Day Avg Output | ≈ 436,800 MMBTU | +0.3 % |
Largest Gain | Dakota Ethanol +3133 MMBTU | |
Largest Drop | The Andersons – Albion −11,100 MMBTU |
Overall plant utilization improved marginally as several Iowa and Minnesota facilities rebounded from brief slowdowns. No major maintenance outages were reported.
Market Insight
Curve structure held steady with light spread compression:
Oct/Nov: +6.5¢
Nov/Dec: +8.5¢
Q4/Q1: +12.25¢
Physical ethanol remained well-bid at Midwest terminals:
Argo Nov: $1.8075 (+7.5¢ vs Dec)
NYH Nov: $1.95 (+6.5¢ vs Dec)
ITT Oct: $1.95 (+11¢ vs CU)
R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS
Export demand continues to support Gulf and Caribbean markets, while blending economics remain favorable given stable gasoline cracks and corn differentials.
EIA Estimate Check (Comparison)
Date | EIA Estimate (M b/d) | Δ vs Prior Day | Utilization % |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct 23 | 1.118 | — | 75.2 % |
Oct 24 | 1.122 | +0.004 (+0.4 %) | 75.8 % |
Oct 28 | 1.124 | +0.002 (+0.2 %) | 76.0 % |
✅ Production continues a stable, incremental upward trend — now roughly +0.6 % week-over-week since Oct 23.
This aligns closely with modeled throughput recovery at plants in northeast Nebraska and northern Iowa.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/28
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.84 | +0.065 |
Nov | 1.775 | +0.085 |
Dec | 1.69 | +0.0575 |
Jan | 1.6325 | −0.0075 |
Feb | 1.64 | −0.025 |
Mar | 1.665 | −0.025 |
Apr | 1.69 | −0.0225 |
May | 1.7125 | −0.0125 |
Jun | 1.725 | −0.005 |
Jul | 1.73 | — |
Q4: 1.7675 | Q1: 1.645 | Q2: 1.710 | 1H: 1.6775
Q4/Q1: +0.1225 | Q1/Q2: −0.065
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.93 | +0.09 |
Nov | 1.865 | +0.09 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.8075 | +0.075 |
Dec | 1.7325 | +0.07 |
Jan | 1.6625 | +0.025 |
Feb | 1.6375 | −0.015 |
Mar | 1.6525 | −0.025 |
Apr | 1.6775 | −0.025 |
May | 1.7025 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.95 | +0.065 | +0.11 |
Dec | 1.885 | +0.085 | +0.11 |
Jan | 1.80 | +0.0575 | +0.11 |
Feb | 1.7425 | −0.0075 | +0.11 |
Mar | 1.75 | −0.025 | +0.11 |
Apr | 1.775 | −0.025 | +0.11 |
May | 1.80 | −0.0225 | +0.11 |
Jun | 1.8225 | −0.0125 | +0.11 |
Jul | 1.835 | +0.105 | +0.11 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.95 | +0.11 | +0.065 |
Nov | 1.885 | +0.11 | +0.085 |
Dec | 1.80 | +0.11 | +0.0575 |
Jan | 1.7425 | +0.11 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technicals
Futures remain range-bound between $1.73 – $1.86, with momentum indicators neutral (RSI ≈ 50).
Spreads continue to normalize seasonally, suggesting stable near-term pricing ahead of next week’s EIA report.
Summary
Ethanol futures held firm Tuesday as Q4 backwardation persisted and operational utilization inched higher.
Our Model projects EIA production at 1.124 M b/d (+0.2 %), marking the third consecutive weekly increase.
Market structure remains balanced with steady export flow and strong Midwest throughput.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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