- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 10/29/25
Market Overview
Ethanol futures were mixed midweek, with the CU contract settling at $1.835, while Q4 averaged $1.75, reflecting a modest easing in front-month strength.
The forward curve remains backwardated, though the Q4/Q1 premium narrowed to 9.5¢ from 12.25¢ earlier this week as deferred contracts firmed.
Coolidge Reports’ model now projects EIA ethanol production at 1.125 million b/d, up +1,000 b/d (+0.1%) from Tuesday’s estimate of 1.124 M b/d.
Plant utilization held near 76.1%, signaling continued high operational rates as plants maintain strong crush margins and efficient throughput.
Production Metrics
Metric | Value | Δ vs Prior Report |
|---|---|---|
EIA Production Estimate | 1.125 M b/d | +0.001 M b/d (+0.1%) |
Utilization | 76.1% | +0.1% |
Daily Output | ≈ 437,400 MMBTU | +0.1% |
7-Day Avg Output | ≈ 436,900 MMBTU | +0.2% |
Largest Gain | Lincolnway Energy +3,025 MMBTU | |
Largest Drop | Big River Resources – West Burlington −6,480 MMBTU |
Production consistency remains remarkable, with minimal variance across Midwest plants. Overall throughput continues to hover near 435–438k MMBTU/day, reflecting stable economics and strong blending pull.
Market Insight
Spreads softened slightly across the CU curve as prompt-month bids eased and deferred months gained traction.
Oct/Nov: +9.5¢
Nov/Dec: +6.5¢
Q4/Q1: +9.5¢
Q1/Q2: −6.75¢
Cash and physical markets remained firm but quiet:
Argo Nov: $1.7875 (+8.0¢ vs Dec)
NYH Nov: $1.945 (+9.5¢ vs Dec)
ITT Oct: $1.945 (+11¢ vs CU)
R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS
Export demand continues to underpin basis levels, with notable spot activity in Gulf and Caribbean destinations.
Margins remain favorable across most of the Corn Belt despite slightly firmer corn basis in southern Minnesota.
EIA Production Comparison (Week-to-Date)
Date | EIA Estimate (M b/d) | Δ vs Prior Day | Utilization % |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct 23 | 1.118 | — | 75.2 % |
Oct 24 | 1.122 | +0.004 | 75.8 % |
Oct 28 | 1.124 | +0.002 | 76.0 % |
Oct 29 | 1.125 | +0.001 | 76.1 % |
✅ Trend: Output has now risen +0.6% week-over-week, consistent with improved utilization at Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota facilities.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/29
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.835 | +0.095 |
Nov | 1.74 | +0.065 |
Dec | 1.675 | +0.0375 |
Jan | 1.6375 | −0.015 |
Feb | 1.6525 | −0.025 |
Mar | 1.6775 | −0.025 |
Apr | 1.7025 | −0.0225 |
May | 1.725 | −0.0125 |
Jun | 1.7375 | −0.005 |
Jul | 1.7425 | — |
Q4: 1.75 | Q1: 1.655 | Q2: 1.7225 | 1H: 1.69
Q4/Q1: +0.095 | Q1/Q2: −0.0675
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.92 | +0.085 |
Nov | 1.825 | +0.085 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.7875 | +0.080 |
Dec | 1.7075 | +0.050 |
Jan | 1.6575 | +0.0125 |
Feb | 1.645 | −0.020 |
Mar | 1.665 | −0.025 |
Apr | 1.69 | −0.025 |
May | 1.715 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.945 | +0.095 | +0.110 |
Dec | 1.85 | +0.065 | +0.110 |
Jan | 1.785 | +0.0375 | +0.110 |
Feb | 1.7475 | −0.015 | +0.110 |
Mar | 1.7625 | −0.025 | +0.110 |
Apr | 1.7875 | −0.025 | +0.110 |
May | 1.8125 | −0.0225 | +0.110 |
Jun | 1.835 | −0.0125 | +0.110 |
Jul | 1.8475 | +0.105 | +0.110 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.945 | +0.11 | +0.095 |
Nov | 1.85 | +0.11 | +0.065 |
Dec | 1.785 | +0.11 | +0.0375 |
Jan | 1.7475 | +0.11 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technical Picture
Futures remain rangebound between $1.73 and $1.85, with support holding near the mid-$1.70s.
Momentum indicators show mild consolidation; RSI near 48 suggests neutral short-term bias.
Curve structure implies stable spot pricing into November, with potential mild softening in Q1 spreads.
Summary
Ethanol markets were stable midweek with Q4 averaging $1.75 and Q1 at $1.655.
Coolidge Reports’ latest model pegs EIA production at 1.125 M b/d (+0.1%), maintaining a fifth consecutive week above 1.11M.
Output stability and firm export demand continue to underpin the market into early November.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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