Ethanol Market Update - 10/30/25

Market Overview

Ethanol futures firmed Thursday as nearby contracts gained strength heading into month-end. The CU contract settled at $1.8325, with Q4 averaging $1.7275, widening the Q4/Q1 premium to 8.25¢.
Backwardation remained intact, supported by firm Midwest cash markets and export inquiries from the Gulf.

Production Metrics

Throughput remains firm across Iowa, Nebraska, and Illinois plants. Rail logistics continue to ease, and DDG yields remain solid, offsetting slightly firmer corn basis values.

Market Insight

Spreads tightened slightly in the front end as nearby strength outpaced deferred weakness:

• Oct/Nov: +13.25¢

• Nov/Dec: +4.75¢

• Q4/Q1: +8.25¢

• Q1/Q2: −6.75¢

Cash markets followed futures higher:

• Argo Nov: $1.765 (+8.75¢ vs Dec)

• NYH Nov: $1.9425 (+13.25¢ vs Dec)

• ITT Oct: $1.9425 (+11¢ vs CU)

• R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS

Demand remains steady as coastal blending margins remain in positive territory and export bookings continue to surface for late November shipment windows.

EIA Production Comparison (Recent Trend)

✅ Output has increased +0.35% week-over-week, signaling consistent and efficient plant operations as the industry exits Q4 harvest logistics.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/30

Ethanol CU Contract

Q4: 1.7275 | Q1: 1.645 | Q2: 1.7125 | 1H: 1.68
Q4/Q1: +0.0825 | Q1/Q2: −0.0675

EZ/CU Contract

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

R11 Prompt

• TWS: $1.9325

• NWS: $1.9625

Technical Picture

Ethanol futures maintained a narrow range between $1.65 and $1.83, with nearby strength in Q4 and deferred softness in Q1.
Momentum indicators remain neutral; RSI around 49 suggests a balanced setup.
The Q4 backwardation remains intact, reflecting robust physical demand and limited prompt availability.

Summary

Ethanol futures strengthened Thursday as front-month spreads widened amid firm physical trade and stable production.
With utilization above 76% and steady Gulf export interest, the market remains well-supported into November.

Technicals

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