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- Ethanol Market Update - 10/31/25
Market Overview
Ethanol futures closed the week on a firm note, with the CU contract settling at $1.835 and Q4 averaging $1.7375, up modestly from Thursday’s $1.7275.
Backwardation steepened across nearby months as blending demand picked up into November, supported by strong rack pricing and steady export flows.
National utilization averaged 76.3%, marking the sixth consecutive weekly increase and maintaining one of the strongest October production streaks since 2021.
Production Metrics
Metric | Value | Δ vs Prior Day |
|---|---|---|
Utilization | 76.3% | +0.1% |
Daily Output | ≈ 437,800 MMBTU | +0.05% |
7-Day Avg Output | ≈ 437,200 MMBTU | +0.2% |
Largest Gain | Marquis Energy – Hennepin (+4,150 MMBTU) | |
Largest Drop | Big River – Dyersville (−6,980 MMBTU) |
Plant throughput remained stable, particularly in eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota, where margins are still favorable despite elevated corn basis.
The Midwest average crush spread improved marginally week-over-week as ethanol’s prompt price recovery offset rising input costs.
Market Insight
Spreads continued to firm at the front of the curve, driven by strong prompt bids and tightening inventories:
Oct/Nov: +12¢
Nov/Dec: +5¢
Q4/Q1: +8¢
Q1/Q2: −7¢
Cash markets mirrored the firmness:
Argo Nov: $1.775 (+8.5¢ vs Dec)
NYH Nov: $1.945 (+12¢ vs Dec)
ITT Oct: $1.945 (+11¢ vs CU)
R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS
Export volumes out of the Gulf continue to perform well, with early November loadings bound for Brazil and West Africa. Domestic offtake from major blenders remains strong as refiners maximize RIN generation before year-end.
EIA Production Comparison (October Trend)
Date | EIA Estimate (M b/d) | Δ vs Prior Day | Utilization % |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct 24 | 1.122 | — | 75.8% |
Oct 28 | 1.124 | +0.002 | 76.0% |
Oct 29 | 1.125 | +0.001 | 76.1% |
Oct 30 | 1.126 | +0.001 | 76.2% |
Oct 31 | 1.127 | +0.001 | 76.3% |
✅ Production increased +0.45% week-over-week, maintaining consistent daily output above 1.12 M b/d for five straight sessions — the strongest performance since early summer.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/31
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.835 | +0.120 |
Nov | 1.715 | +0.050 |
Dec | 1.665 | +0.0275 |
Jan | 1.6375 | −0.0175 |
Feb | 1.655 | −0.0275 |
Mar | 1.6825 | −0.025 |
Apr | 1.7075 | −0.0225 |
May | 1.73 | −0.0125 |
Jun | 1.7425 | −0.005 |
Jul | 1.7475 | — |
Q4: 1.7375 | Q1: 1.6575 | Q2: 1.7275 | 1H: 1.6925
Q4/Q1: +0.080 | Q1/Q2: −0.070
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.920 | +0.085 |
Nov | 1.800 | +0.085 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.775 | +0.085 |
Dec | 1.690 | +0.0375 |
Jan | 1.6525 | +0.005 |
Feb | 1.6475 | −0.0225 |
Mar | 1.670 | −0.025 |
Apr | 1.695 | −0.025 |
May | 1.720 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.945 | +0.120 | +0.110 |
Dec | 1.825 | +0.050 | +0.110 |
Jan | 1.775 | +0.0275 | +0.110 |
Feb | 1.7475 | −0.0175 | +0.110 |
Mar | 1.765 | −0.0275 | +0.110 |
Apr | 1.7925 | −0.025 | +0.110 |
May | 1.8175 | −0.0225 | +0.110 |
Jun | 1.840 | −0.0125 | +0.110 |
Jul | 1.8525 | +0.105 | +0.110 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.945 | +0.110 | +0.120 |
Nov | 1.825 | +0.110 | +0.050 |
Dec | 1.775 | +0.110 | +0.0275 |
Jan | 1.7475 | +0.110 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technical Picture
Ethanol futures consolidated near the top of the recent range between $1.65–$1.84, confirming short-term strength in Q4.
Momentum remains constructive, with RSI at 55 and forward spreads suggesting mild strength through early November.
Summary
Ethanol prices held firm into month-end with CU settling at $1.835 and Q4 averaging $1.7375.
Physical and futures markets remain well-supported heading into November amid strong blending demand and consistent export interest.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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