Ethanol Market Update - 10/6/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Ethanol output rebounded to start the week, with total production rising 5.33% day-over-day to 441,205 MMBTU, driven by improved Midwest run rates. The fleet averaged ~416,400 MMBTU over the past seven days, lifting utilization back to 77%, its highest level in two weeks.

Plant-level performance was broad-based — 54 facilities ran above the fleet average, while 20 remained below. Gains were concentrated across large integrated producers, led by POET Bioprocessing – Chancellor, while Marquis Energy – Illinois saw the largest single-day drop.

Daily Production: 441,205 MMBTU
7-Day Avg: 416,398 MMBTU
Utilization: 77%
Largest Gain: POET Bioprocessing – Chancellor
Largest Drop: Marquis Energy – Illinois

EIA Estimate Preview – Week Ending 10/04

Liquidity Energy’s model pegs this week’s ethanol production at 1.056 million barrels per day (b/d), modestly higher than last week’s reported 1.091M b/d but consistent with steady operating trends.

Confidence in the estimate is moderate, with expected variance of ±10–15 kb/d, depending on late-week revisions.

Market Insight

Operationally, plants remain well-balanced — Q4 margins continue to encourage stable run rates, while regional inventories remain near 5-year norms. While feedstock prices have firmed slightly, blending economics remain favorable, keeping production supported into mid-October.

The forward curve remains backwardated, signaling continued tightness through late Q4, while physical cash values reflect sustained Midwest strength and coastal basis stability.

Outlook

• Base Case: Production stabilizes near 1.05–1.08M b/d through mid-October.

• Upside Risk: Improved crush margins or early blending upticks could lift output toward 1.09M b/d.

• Downside Risk: Rail congestion and early maintenance runs may cap utilization below 76%.

Liquidity Energy expects EIA-reported production on Thursday to land near 1.056M b/d, with utilization staying near 77%.

MMBTU Output vs. Utilization (%):

Oct 1–6 Range:
Low: 412,000 MMBTU (Fri)
High: 441,000 MMBTU (Mon)
7-Day Mean: 416,398 MMBTU
Utilization: 77%

Technicals

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