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- Ethanol Market Update - 10/7/25
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October 7, 2025
Overview
Ethanol Market Update – 10/07/25
Executive Summary
Physical production remains steady following last week’s recovery, with estimated output near 1.058M b/d, slightly above our prior projection of 1.056M b/d. Utilization is holding close to 77%, while total daily output averaged roughly 442,000 MMBTU Monday, a marginal uptick from last week’s mean.
Daily Production: ~442,000 MMBTU
7-Day Avg: ~418,200 MMBTU
Utilization: 77%
Largest Gain: Green Plains – Superior
Largest Drop: Big River Resources – Galva
EIA Estimate – Week Ending 10/04
Our model-based forecast remains aligned with steady operational metrics. Liquidity Energy’s call for the upcoming EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (to be released Oct. 9) is 1.058 million barrels per day (b/d) — slightly above last week’s official 1.091M b/d, indicating stable throughput and solid Midwest margins.
Model Source | Estimate (M b/d) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
7-Day MMBTU Proxy | 1.058 | Primary operational model |
Weekday Median | 1.067 | Smooths weekend volatility |
Weighted Composite | 1.053–1.061 | Adjusts for plant-level fluctuations |
Variance band: ±10 kb/d
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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