- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 10/8/25
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October 8, 2025
Overview
Futures held a firm bid mid-week while the curve stayed sharply backwardated into Q4. Operationally, national run rates were broadly steady versus yesterday with only modest plant-level noise.
Daily Production (proxy): ~411,000 MMBTU
7-Day Avg: ~408,000 MMBTU
Utilization: 73% (est.)
Largest Gain: POET – Chancellor
Largest Drop: Marquis Energy – Illinois
EIA Estimate (week ending 10/04, report date 10/08): 1.058M b/d
(unchanged from our prior call; model band ±10 kb/d)
Balance take: Curve backwardation + firmer cash differentials continue to signal tighter late-Q4 availability, while steady blending and stable export flows underpin basis.
Market Insight
Curve: Sep/Oct ~flat to slightly positive; Oct/Nov ~+10¢; Nov/Dec ~+15¢.
Spreads: Q4/Q1 ≈ +0.22 keeps late-year premiums intact despite stable production prints.
Cash: Argo and NYH continue to clear at ~10–11¢ over CU equivalents; ITT maintains its ~11¢ premium.
Drivers to watch:
Adjustment factor sensitivity in the Wednesday EIA print (source of recent week-to-week wobble).
Gulf/Chicago basis resilience into October rack restarts.
Exports: bookings remain constructive and absorb incremental barrels on dips.
Production Dashboard
Metric | Today | 7-Day | 2-Year Seasonal |
|---|---|---|---|
Output (MMBTU) | ~411,000 | ~408,000 | ~388,000 |
Utilization | ~73% | ~72% | ~70% |
Comment: The fleet is running a touch above seasonal norms; variance remains concentrated in a handful of large Midwest assets.
EIA Weekly Production – Our Call
Item | Level |
|---|---|
Coolidge Report Estimate | 1.058M b/d |
Prior Week (actual) | 1.091M b/d |
Model Range (P10–P90) | 1.048–1.068M b/d |
Key Risks | Adjustment factor, regional downtime timing |
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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