- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 10/9/25
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Executive Summary
Ethanol futures eased midweek as Q4 spreads softened slightly ahead of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The CU contract settled at $1.8675, while the Q4 average ticked down to $1.78, narrowing the premium to 15.75¢ over Q1.
Production remains stable around 1.061M b/d, with utilization hovering near 73%, slightly below the prior week’s average. Output remains regionally steady, with marginal slowdowns reported in eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota.
Daily Production: ~408,500 MMBTU
7-Day Avg: ~410,000 MMBTU
Utilization: 73%
Largest Gain: POET – Mitchell
Largest Drop: Big River – Galva
This compares to last week’s actual of 1.058M b/d, suggesting another flat-to-slightly higher trend as throughput steadies across major producing regions.
Model Source | Estimate (M b/d) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
7-Day MMBTU Proxy | 1.061 | Realized production from aggregate MMBTU values |
Adjustment Factor (3-week avg)** | +3 kb/d | Small upward bias correction |
Weighted Model Composite | 1.059 – 1.063 | 95% confidence band |
Market Insight
The ethanol curve remains backwardated, though with slightly less intensity than earlier this week. The Oct/Nov spread narrowed to +8.75¢, and the Q4/Q1 spread compressed to +15.75¢, signaling mild softening in deferred demand expectations.
Forward Spreads:
Oct/Nov: +8.75¢
Nov/Dec: +9¢
Dec/Jan: +7.5¢
Q4/Q1: +15.75¢
Cash Markets:
Argo Oct: $1.99 prompt, flat tone
Argo Nov: $1.825 (–9¢ vs Dec)
NYH Nov: $1.9775 (+8.75¢ vs Dec, +11¢ CU)
ITT Oct: $1.9775 (+11¢ vs CU)
R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS
The tone remains constructive heading into the EIA report, with blend demand strong and export programs continuing at seasonally average levels.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 10/09/25
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.8675 | Oct/Nov: +0.0875 |
Nov | 1.7800 | Nov/Dec: +0.0900 |
Dec | 1.6900 | Dec/Jan: +0.0750 |
Jan | 1.6150 | Jan/Feb: +0.0025 |
Feb | 1.6125 | Feb/Mar: –0.0250 |
Mar | 1.6375 | Mar/Apr: –0.0200 |
Apr | 1.6575 | Apr/May: –0.0200 |
May | 1.6775 | May/Jun: –0.0125 |
Jun | 1.6900 | Jun/Jul: –0.0025 |
Jul | 1.6925 | — |
Q4: 1.7800 | Q1: 1.6225 | Q2: 1.6750 | 1H: 1.6500
Q4/Q1: +0.1575 | Q1/Q2: –0.0525
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.9775 | 0.1100 |
Nov | 1.8950 | 0.1150 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.9900 | — |
Nov | 1.8250 | Nov/Dec: +0.0900 |
Dec | 1.7350 | Dec/Jan: +0.0825 |
Jan | 1.6525 | Jan/Feb: +0.0375 |
Feb | 1.6150 | Feb/Mar: –0.0100 |
Mar | 1.6250 | Mar/Apr: –0.0225 |
Apr | 1.6475 | Apr/May: –0.0200 |
May | 1.6675 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Sep | 1.9510 | — | 0.1025 |
Nov | 1.9775 | Nov/Dec: +0.0875 | 0.1100 |
Dec | 1.8900 | Dec/Jan: +0.0900 | 0.1100 |
Jan | 1.8000 | Jan/Feb: +0.0750 | 0.1100 |
Feb | 1.7250 | Feb/Mar: +0.0025 | 0.1100 |
Mar | 1.7225 | Mar/Apr: –0.0250 | 0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7475 | Apr/May: –0.0200 | 0.1100 |
May | 1.7675 | May/Jun: –0.0200 | 0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7875 | Jun/Jul: –0.0125 | 0.1100 |
Jul | 1.8000 | Jul/Aug: +0.1075 | 0.1100 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct | 1.9775 | 0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.0875 |
Nov | 1.8900 | 0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.0900 |
Dec | 1.8000 | 0.1100 | Dec/Jan: +0.0750 |
Jan | 1.7250 | 0.1100 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Outlook
Ethanol margins remain healthy despite slight futures softening, with regional basis still firm. Liquidity Energy expects EIA to report a stable print near 1.06M b/d with Midwest utilization holding flat. Should Gulf export demand strengthen, Q4 backwardation is likely to re-widen above 20¢
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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