Ethanol Market Update - 11/10/25

Overview

Market Overview

Ethanol futures opened the week steady, with CU November settling at $1.770, maintaining Friday’s strength and extending the firm tone seen through early November. The curve remains slightly backward, with spreads continuing to reflect export demand and steady domestic blending activity.

Liquidity Energy’s latest production model holds EIA ethanol output unchanged at 1.131 million b/d, marking the third straight session flat and consistent with the plateau that’s formed following nine consecutive weekly gains. Utilization remains steady at 76.7%, while regional run rates continue to hover near seasonal norms.

Margins remain stable as spot crush values hold firm; corn basis was steady across most regions, with slightly firmer bids in the eastern Corn Belt. Export flow continues to support front-month values, though buying has been measured.

Production Metrics

Production stability reflects a balanced operating environment — plants continue to run efficiently, with no new maintenance downtime or weather-related disruptions.

Market Insight

Front-end spreads strengthened modestly to start the week, with Nov/Dec at +8.25¢ and Dec/Jan at +6.25¢. The Q1 average sits at $1.64, while Q2 holds at $1.705, keeping the curve slightly backward but consistent with the broader trend since mid-October.

Argo prompt values are tracking futures closely, with January at $1.73 and spreads remaining firm across early Q1 months.
NYH cash values edged higher, with December at $1.88 and ITT Nov mirroring at $1.88, showing steady downstream support.

Cash markets were mostly unchanged:

• Argo Jan: $1.73

• NYH Dec: $1.88

• ITT Nov: $1.88

• R11 TWS/NWS: $1.9325 / $1.9625

Export markets remain supportive, with Gulf offers unchanged and Brazilian buying interest persisting at the margin.

EIA Comparison – Week to Date

✅ Production has stabilized at its seasonal peak, marking three sessions flat and maintaining year-to-date highs since late June.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 11/10

Ethanol CU Contract

Q1: 1.640 | Q2: 1.705 | 1H: 1.6725 | Q1/Q2: −0.065

EZ/CU Contract

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

R11 Prompt

• TWS: $1.9325

• NWS: $1.9625

Technical Picture

Futures continue to consolidate within a narrow $1.68–$1.78 range, with spreads firm but not expanding.
Technical support is layered at $1.69, while resistance remains near $1.78–$1.80.
Momentum is neutral to slightly bullish, with open interest in the front half of the curve unchanged from last week.

Summary

Ethanol prices began the week steady, maintaining Friday’s tone with CU Nov closing at $1.770.
Production remains flat at 1.131 M b/d, utilization steady at 76.7%, and export demand continues to underpin the front of the curve.

The tone remains constructive — firm but not frothy — with margins solid and the forward curve balanced.
The near-term bias stays upward so long as production doesn’t surprise higher and exports continue to clear.

Technicals

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The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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