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- Ethanol Market Update - 11/11/25
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November 11, 2025
Overview
Market Overview
Ethanol futures opened the week firm, with CU November settling at $1.790, up 1¢ from Monday. The front end remains well supported by export demand and steady domestic blending, with spreads continuing to tighten across nearby months.
Margins are stable as product values continue to outpace minor weakness in corn basis. Export flow remains a key driver, with Gulf and East Coast activity maintaining support for prompt positions.
Production Metrics
Metric | Value | Δ vs Prior Day |
|---|---|---|
EIA Production Estimate | 1.131 M b/d | Flat |
Utilization | 76.7% | Flat |
Daily Output | ≈ 438,900 MMBTU | Flat |
7-Day Avg Output | ≈ 438,200 MMBTU | +0.02% |
Largest Gain | Valero – Hartley (+2,100 MMBTU) | |
Largest Drop | POET – Chancellor (−2,000 MMBTU) |
Production remains balanced — most plants are running normally, and no significant logistical or feedstock issues are reported.
Market Insight
Front-end spreads remain firm with Nov/Dec at +8.5¢ and Dec/Jan at +7.25¢, consistent with the recent tightening trend across Q1.
The Q1 average stands at $1.6475, while Q2 remains at $1.7125, keeping the curve slightly backward but structurally supported by export strength.
Argo and NYH both tracked the futures move higher:
Argo Jan: $1.7475
NYH Dec: $1.900
ITT Nov: $1.900
R11 (TWS/NWS): $1.9325 / $1.9625
Export offers held steady, with prompt Gulf cargoes still drawing solid interest. Domestic racks are showing light week-over-week gains, suggesting ongoing downstream pull.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 11/11
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.790 | +0.085 |
Dec | 1.705 | +0.0725 |
Jan | 1.6325 | −0.010 |
Feb | 1.6425 | −0.025 |
Mar | 1.6675 | −0.0275 |
Apr | 1.695 | −0.020 |
May | 1.715 | −0.0125 |
Jun | 1.7275 | −0.0025 |
Jul | 1.730 | — |
Q1: 1.6475 | Q2: 1.7125 | 1H: 1.680 | Q1/Q2: −0.065
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.885 | +0.095 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Jan | 1.7475 | +0.0775 |
Feb | 1.670 | +0.0325 |
Mar | 1.6375 | −0.0175 |
Apr | 1.655 | −0.0275 |
May | 1.6825 | −0.0225 |
Jun | 1.705 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.900 | +0.085 | +0.11 |
Jan | 1.815 | +0.0725 | +0.11 |
Feb | 1.7425 | −0.010 | +0.11 |
Mar | 1.7525 | −0.025 | +0.11 |
Apr | 1.7775 | −0.0275 | +0.11 |
May | 1.805 | −0.020 | +0.11 |
Jun | 1.825 | −0.0125 | +0.11 |
Jul | 1.8375 | +0.1075 | +0.11 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.900 | +0.110 | +0.085 |
Dec | 1.815 | +0.110 | +0.0725 |
Jan | 1.7425 | +0.110 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technical Picture
Futures are consolidating near the top end of the recent range between $1.68–$1.79, with moderate strength in prompt spreads and light buying interest in deferred contracts.
Support remains around $1.69, with resistance near $1.80–$1.82.
Momentum is neutral to slightly bullish, with volumes concentrated in front-month rolls.
Summary
Ethanol prices edged higher Tuesday, with CU Nov closing at $1.790 and spreads holding firm.
Production remains flat at 1.131 M b/d, utilization steady at 76.7%, and export demand continues to underpin the front.
The tone stays constructive — firm but orderly — with no signs of overheating.
The steady production plateau and solid export pull continue to keep the market supported heading into mid-month.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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