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- Ethanol Market Update - 11/12/25
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November 12, 2025
Overview
Market Overview
Ethanol futures extended higher midweek with CU November settling at $1.835, up another 4.5¢, marking the highest print since mid-September. The front-end rally continues to draw strength from firm export flow and stable production, while spreads remain supported across the forward curve.
Utilization holds steady at 76.7%, with no major operational or logistics disruptions reported. Flat production coupled with steady export movement has kept inventories balanced heading into mid-November.
Margins remain healthy across the board — corn basis is steady to slightly softer, while DDG and CO₂ values remain firm. Domestic rack demand remains moderate but stable, while Gulf and East Coast export programs continue to drive the front-month strength.
Production Metrics
Metric | Value | Δ vs Prior Day |
|---|---|---|
Utilization | 76.7% | Flat |
Daily Output | ≈ 438,900 MMBTU | Flat |
7-Day Avg Output | ≈ 438,300 MMBTU | +0.02% |
Largest Gain | POET – Shell Rock (+2,000 MMBTU) | |
Largest Drop | Green Plains – Bluffton (−1,800 MMBTU) |
Production levels remain consistent, suggesting a stable operating environment heading into the week’s end.
Market Insight
Front-end spreads continue to firm — Nov/Dec widened to +9.0¢, while Dec/Jan moved to +9.25¢. The Q1 average now sits at $1.6625, while Q2 holds at $1.72, keeping the curve slightly backward but structurally well supported.
Argo and NYH mirrored the move higher, with prompt values following futures:
Argo Jan: $1.79
NYH Dec: $1.945
ITT Nov: $1.945
R11 TWS/NWS: $1.9325 / $1.9625
Export demand continues to lend underlying strength, with freight availability improving slightly this week. East Coast barge demand remains robust, keeping prompt offers near recent highs.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 11/12
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.835 | +0.090 |
Dec | 1.745 | +0.0925 |
Jan | 1.6525 | −0.005 |
Feb | 1.6575 | −0.020 |
Mar | 1.6775 | −0.025 |
Apr | 1.7025 | −0.020 |
May | 1.7225 | −0.0125 |
Jun | 1.735 | −0.0025 |
Jul | 1.7375 | — |
Q1: 1.6625 | Q2: 1.720 | 1H: 1.6925 | Q1/Q2: −0.0575
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.930 | +0.095 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Jan | 1.790 | +0.090 |
Feb | 1.700 | +0.045 |
Mar | 1.655 | −0.0125 |
Apr | 1.6675 | −0.0225 |
May | 1.690 | −0.0225 |
Jun | 1.7125 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.945 | +0.090 | +0.11 |
Jan | 1.855 | +0.0925 | +0.11 |
Feb | 1.7625 | −0.005 | +0.11 |
Mar | 1.7675 | −0.020 | +0.11 |
Apr | 1.7875 | −0.025 | +0.11 |
May | 1.8125 | −0.020 | +0.11 |
Jun | 1.8325 | −0.0125 | +0.11 |
Jul | 1.845 | +0.1075 | +0.11 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.945 | +0.110 | +0.090 |
Dec | 1.855 | +0.110 | +0.0925 |
Jan | 1.7625 | +0.110 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technical Picture
Ethanol futures continue to strengthen within the $1.68–$1.84 channel, with front-end leadership and firming spreads.
Support remains at $1.72, with resistance building at $1.85–$1.86.
Momentum is moderately bullish, supported by steady production and ongoing export demand.
Open interest increased slightly in front-month rolls, suggesting continued commercial participation rather than speculative length.
Summary
Ethanol futures extended their rally Wednesday with CU Nov up to $1.835, marking another firm session driven by export pull and steady production.
The nearby curve continues to tighten, with no major shifts expected until next week’s EIA data refresh and monthly blending updates.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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