Ethanol Market Update - 11/13/25

Market Overview

Ethanol futures continued to firm midweek with CU November settling at $1.8375, adding another 2.25¢ on the day as the front end remains well supported. The move keeps the contract near its strongest print since early fall, driven by steady export flows, mild Gulf tightness, and a broadly stable production environment.

The curve held its recent shape — moderate backwardation through Q1 and Q2, supported by firm cash values and consistent barge demand on the East Coast. Domestic rack demand remains seasonally steady, while export programs continue to anchor prompt values for both futures and physical markets.

Margins remain constructive across most regions. Corn basis is mixed but generally softer, DDG values remain firm, and CO₂ demand remains elevated in several industrial channels. No major operational disruptions reported, with run rates appearing stable across the fleet.

Market Insight

Front-end spreads continue to hold their strength:

• Nov/Dec: +8.5¢

• Dec/Jan: +9.5¢

• Jan/Feb: 0¢

The Q1 average sits at $1.665, with Q2 at $1.720. The curve remains structurally firm, supported by the ongoing export pull and consistent production.

Cash markets also reflected the stronger tone:

• Argo Jan: $1.795 (+9.0¢)

• NYH Dec: $1.9475 (+8.5¢)

• ITT Nov: $1.9475

• R11 TWS/NWS: $1.9325 / $1.9625

Freight availability continues to improve modestly, helping to ease some late-November congestion. Gulf and Atlantic Coast demand remains steady, keeping prompt markets well bid.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 11/13

Ethanol CU Contract

Q1: 1.665 | Q2: 1.720 | 1H: 1.6925 | Q1/Q2: −0.055

EZ/CU Contract

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

R11 Prompt

• TWS: $1.9325

• NWS: $1.9625

Technical Picture

Futures continue to trade firmly within the upper end of the recent range, supported by stable production and persistent export strength. Resistance sits near $1.85, with support holding at $1.72. Momentum remains moderately bullish but orderly, with commercial buying dominating flows.

Open interest continues to tick higher as roll activity increases into December.

Technicals

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