Ethanol Market Update - 11/14/25

Overview

Market Overview

Ethanol finished on Thursday firm, with CU Nov settling at $1.840, adding another 5.5¢ and pushing toward the upper end of the November range. The front of the curve continues to find solid footing from export demand and steady plant performance, with spreads generally holding their bid into mid-month.

The broader curve stayed orderly — nothing extreme, but the easing corn board and resilient cash values continue to underpin sentiment. Margins remain well-supported, and despite mixed spot rack demand, export programs and ongoing barge strength on the East Coast continue to keep the front end elevated.

Argo and NYH followed futures higher, with cash values staying tightly correlated to CU.

Market Insight

Front spreads firmed again:

• Nov/Dec at +9.0¢

• Dec/Jan steady at +9.0¢

• Q1 holding $1.6675

• Q2 sitting at $1.725

The curve remains gently backward into Q1 before flattening modestly into summer months. Commercial flow remains the dominant driver — not spec length — with open interest patterns consistent with hedging activity into year-end.

Argo continues to track futures closely, while NYH remains well bid on prompt barge demand, keeping its premium to CU locked near the 10–11¢ band.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 11/14

Ethanol CU Contract

Q1: 1.6675 | Q2: 1.725 | 1H: 1.6975 | Q1/Q2: −0.0575

EZ/CU Contract

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

R11 Prompt

• TWS: $1.9325

• NWS: $1.9625

Technical Picture

The market remains in a bullish-but-orderly posture. CU continues to hold above $1.70 support, while testing resistance in the $1.84–$1.86 zone, which aligns with the upper boundary of the current channel.

Volume and participation remain commercial in nature, with no signs of speculative froth. The trendline off early October lows remains intact.

Summary

Ethanol futures pushed higher into the end of the week, with CU Nov printing $1.84, supported by firm spreads and solid export interest.
Cash markets followed through, particularly in NYH, where barge demand remains a major driver.

The tone remains constructive — firm but stable — with no immediate signs of overextension. Spreads are holding their gains, the curve remains healthy, and fundamentals are aligned with the recent move.

Technicals

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