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- Ethanol Market Update - 11/17/25
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Market Overview
Ethanol futures finished the week on a firmer note, with CU November settling at $1.820, recovering earlier softness and holding the front end comfortably inside the recent $1.78–$1.84 band. Trade was orderly throughout the session, with spreads well supported and cash markets stable heading into the weekend.
Export programs remain the primary driver of nearby strength, while domestic offtake is behaving seasonally — steady but not exceptional. Margins remain workable, with corn basis mixed across the belt and coproduct values holding a tight range. Overall tone stays constructive despite choppy intraday action.
Market Insight
Front spreads continued to firm into weekend settlement:
Nov/Dec at +10.0¢
Dec/Jan at +8.25¢
Q1 at $1.650
Q2 at $1.7075
1H at $1.680
Argo and NYH tracked futures closely:
Argo Jan: $1.770
Argo Feb: $1.680
NYH Dec: $1.930
ITT Nov: $1.930
R11 TWS/NWS: $1.9325 / $1.9625
Export interest remains active and is doing most of the heavy lifting on the prompt. Freight continues to ease slightly, though barge availability into the East Coast remains snug.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 11/15
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.820 | +0.100 |
Dec | 1.720 | +0.0825 |
Jan | 1.6375 | −0.0075 |
Feb | 1.6450 | −0.020 |
Mar | 1.6650 | −0.025 |
Apr | 1.6900 | −0.020 |
May | 1.7100 | −0.0125 |
Jun | 1.7225 | −0.0025 |
Jul | 1.7250 | — |
Q1: 1.650 | Q2: 1.7075 | 1H: 1.680 | Q1/Q2: −0.0575
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.9225 | +0.1025 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Jan | 1.770 | +0.090 |
Feb | 1.680 | +0.040 |
Mar | 1.640 | −0.015 |
Apr | 1.6550 | −0.0225 |
May | 1.6775 | −0.0225 |
Jun | 1.700 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.930 | +0.100 | +0.11 |
Jan | 1.830 | +0.0825 | +0.11 |
Feb | 1.7475 | −0.0075 | +0.11 |
Mar | 1.7550 | −0.020 | +0.11 |
Apr | 1.7750 | −0.025 | +0.11 |
May | 1.8000 | −0.020 | +0.11 |
Jun | 1.8200 | −0.0125 | +0.11 |
Jul | 1.8325 | +0.1075 | +0.11 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.930 | +0.110 | +0.100 |
Dec | 1.830 | +0.110 | +0.0825 |
Jan | 1.7475 | +0.110 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technical Picture
The market continues to trade within a well-defined channel, with front-month support around $1.70 and resistance near $1.83–$1.85. Momentum is neutral-to-firm, helped by strong spreads and steady cash demand into the weekend.
Open interest has been consistent, suggesting commercial positioning rather than speculative directionality. The structure remains supportive as we head into the shortened holiday week ahead.
Summary
Friday wrapped up on a steady note — CU Nov at $1.820, spreads firm, and cash markets orderly. Export demand continues to be the anchor for nearby values, while domestic flows stay seasonally predictable. No major surprises to close out the week, and the market remains well supported heading into the back half of November.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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