Ethanol Market Update - 11/20/25

Overview

Market Overview

Ethanol futures held firm mid-week with another strong settlement in the front end. CU November closed at $1.815, up slightly despite broader softening in energy. The curve remains front-loaded, driven by steady export pull and constrained supply dynamics across several producing regions.

With corn basis running steady to slightly softer in parts of the Western Corn Belt and DDG values cooling, producer margins remain manageable. Domestic rack movement is seasonally quieter, but Gulf/EC export programs remain the engine behind front-month support.

Crude softness continues to limit upside enthusiasm across distillates, but ethanol has decoupled enough that localized supply tightness is still the dominant driver short-term. Spreads widened again in the front, with Nov/Dec now +15.5¢, the strongest carry seen this month.

Production Metrics

Overall production softness remains minor but directionally lower; nothing structurally concerning, but it adds to near-term tightness.

Market Insight

Front spreads widened sharply, led by Nov/Dec at +15.5¢ and Dec/Jan at +7.25¢.
The forward curve structure:

• Q1: 1.6025

• Q2: 1.665

• 1H: 1.635

• Q1/Q2: −6.25¢

Argo followed the board with modest strength in the deferreds. NYH maintained its premium with Dec at $1.925, which continues to reflect ongoing tightness in EC barge availability.

Export interest remains firm for December and early Q1 windows, which keeps the nearby environment well supported despite lower seasonal rack demand.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 11/19

Ethanol CU Contract

Q1: 1.6025 | Q2: 1.665 | 1H: 1.635 | Q1/Q2: −0.0625

EZ/CU Contract

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

Technical Picture

Ethanol is still holding the mid-range of its current channel with support near $1.63 and resistance building closer to $1.83–$1.85.
Momentum remains moderately bullish with tighter spreads, firmer cash values, and early signs of production easing.

Open interest expanded slightly in the front as commercials continue rolling length.

Technicals

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