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- Ethanol Market Update - 11/21/25
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November 21, 2025
Overview
Important Note
We experienced some unexpected technical issues this morning — thank you for your patience.
The following report uses Thursday’s (11/20) closes.
Today’s (11/21) official settles will be included in Monday’s recap.
Market Overview
Ethanol futures finished Thursday with another steady session, holding the recent bid across the front end. CU November settled at $1.835, up modestly on the day, while the Dec/Jan spread firmed to +10.0¢, keeping structure strong into early winter.
The market remains well-supported by stable operations, healthy export programs, and balanced inventory flow. Even as corn basis stays firm in several key regions, plant margins remain manageable due to consistent production and decent co-product values.
The curve continues to compress, with the Q1 average at $1.625 and Q2 at $1.6825, keeping seasonal backwardation intact but still orderly.
End-of-Week Production Recap
Production held remarkably stable throughout the week, with no meaningful disruptions across the fleet. Our modeled output profile shows:
Weekly Average Production: ~1.128–1.132 million b/d
Flat output for the fourth straight week — a sign of consistent plant uptime
Utilization trending near 76–77%, steady with last week
Slight day-to-day site variation, but no cluster of outages or regional weakness
Export demand (Gulf + EC) remained a key stabilizing force
Overall: A smooth, uneventful production week. No supply shocks, no volatility — which helped spreads stay firm and supported the rally in the nearby month.
Ethanol Futures – Thursday Settles (11/20)
These are NOT today’s settles. Today’s (Friday 11/21) closes will be distributed Monday.
CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.835 | +0.120 |
Dec | 1.715 | +0.100 |
Jan | 1.615 | −0.0025 |
Feb | 1.6175 | −0.0225 |
Mar | 1.640 | −0.025 |
Apr | 1.665 | −0.020 |
May | 1.685 | −0.0125 |
Jun | 1.6975 | −0.0025 |
Jul | 1.700 | — |
Q1: 1.625 | Q2: 1.6825 | 1H: 1.655 | Q1/Q2: −0.0575
EZ/CU
Month | EZ | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.915 | 0.080 |
Argo
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Jan | 1.775 | +0.110 |
Feb | 1.665 | +0.0475 |
Mar | 1.6175 | −0.0125 |
Apr | 1.630 | −0.0225 |
May | 1.6525 | −0.0225 |
Jun | 1.675 | — |
NYH
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.945 | +0.120 | 0.11 |
Jan | 1.825 | +0.100 | 0.11 |
Feb | 1.725 | −0.0025 | 0.11 |
Mar | 1.7275 | −0.0225 | 0.11 |
Apr | 1.750 | −0.025 | 0.11 |
May | 1.775 | −0.020 | 0.11 |
Jun | 1.795 | −0.0125 | 0.11 |
Jul | 1.8075 | +0.1075 | 0.11 |
Aug | 1.700 | — | — |
ITT
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.945 | 0.11 | +0.120 |
Dec | 1.825 | 0.11 | +0.100 |
Jan | 1.725 | 0.11 | — |
Summary
Thursday’s close held the recent strength, with Nov at $1.835 and Dec/Jan widening to +10¢, reflecting firm front-end demand and a curve that continues to trade with confidence. Production remains steady into Thanksgiving week, and with logistics performing normally, the market has leaned constructive throughout the week.
Today’s (Friday 11/21) settles will be distributed on Monday along with a full weekly recap.
Thanks again for your patience as we resolved this morning’s technical difficulties..
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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