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- Ethanol Market Update - 11/24/25
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November 25, 2025
Overview
Market Overview
Ethanol futures ended last week steady-to-firm, with CU Nov settling Friday at $1.8375, posting a modest gain into the weekend as the front-end continues to show resilience. The Nov/Dec spread pushed out to +10.75¢, while Dec/Jan firmed to +11.25¢, keeping the front of the curve well supported.
The overall tone remains orderly. Export programs continue to do the heavy lifting, and while domestic demand is seasonally soft, it has not deteriorated. Production is holding in a narrow band, and basis remains stable across most regions.
This morning, our updated EIA model keeps production essentially flat week-over-week, with plants operating consistently and without major outages. Inventories remain balanced heading into the holiday-shortened week.
Liquidity Energy EIA Model – Updated Through Today
Metric | Latest Estimate | WoW Change |
|---|---|---|
Plant Utilization | 76.5% | −0.1% |
Daily Output (MMBTU) | ≈ 438,200 MMBTU | Flat |
7-Day Output Avg | ≈ 438,450 MMBTU | +0.03% |
Production remains stable heading into Thanksgiving week. No major downtime or forced curtailments reported. DDG values remain firm, while CO₂ markets remain seasonally strong.
End-of-Week Production Recap
The final three trading sessions last week showed:
Output holding steady at just above 1.12M b/d
Volatile intraday ethanol futures but net flat-to-higher closes
Front spreads tightening, driven by export pull and limited nearby supply
Cash markets showing incremental strength, especially Argo Jan/Feb and NYH Dec/Jan
Producers remain in a comfortable margin environment, with corn basis softer in some western corridors and DDG strength helping offset RBOB weakness.
Futures & Cash Settlements (From Friday 11/21)
Ethanol CU Futures
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.8375 | +0.1075 |
Dec | 1.7300 | +0.1125 |
Jan | 1.6175 | −0.0025 |
Feb | 1.6200 | −0.0250 |
Mar | 1.6450 | −0.0275 |
Apr | 1.6725 | −0.0200 |
May | 1.6925 | −0.0125 |
Jun | 1.7050 | −0.0050 |
Jul | 1.7100 | — |
Quarterlies:
Q1: 1.6275
Q2: 1.6900
1H: 1.6600
Q1/Q2: −0.0625
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.9175 | 0.080 |
Argo Physical
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Jan | 1.785 | +0.110 |
Feb | 1.675 | +0.055 |
Mar | 1.620 | −0.0125 |
Apr | 1.6325 | −0.0275 |
May | 1.660 | −0.0225 |
Jun | 1.6825 | — |
NYH Physical
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.9475 | +0.1075 | +0.11 |
Jan | 1.8400 | +0.1125 | +0.11 |
Feb | 1.7275 | −0.0025 | +0.11 |
Mar | 1.7300 | −0.0250 | +0.11 |
Apr | 1.7550 | −0.0275 | +0.11 |
May | 1.7825 | −0.0200 | +0.11 |
Jun | 1.8025 | −0.0125 | +0.11 |
Jul | 1.8150 | +0.1050 | +0.11 |
ITT Swap
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.9475 | 0.11 | +0.1075 |
Dec | 1.8400 | 0.11 | +0.1125 |
Jan | 1.7275 | 0.11 | — |
Market Insight
The curve remains strongly supported in the front while gently weakening into late Q1 and Q2. Nov and Dec spreads continue to carry the structure.
Argo differentials continue to track futures strength in a disciplined way — Jan/Feb holding +11¢, with no major blowouts or pinch points. NYH remains well bid due to barge demand and ongoing export activity.
Expect lighter liquidity through midweek due to the holiday, but spreads should remain generally firm unless production unexpectedly rises later in the week.
Summary
Ethanol futures closed last week firmer, with front spreads continuing to lead the curve higher. Cash markets remain well supported, and production remains steady with no signs of major directional change.
Today’s updated MMBTU and EIA model show stable operation across the sector heading into Thanksgiving week.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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