Ethanol Market Update - 11/25/25

Overview

Overview

Ethanol futures opened the holiday week with a firm tone, with CU Nov settling at $1.83 and front spreads once again showing strength. The Nov/Dec spread widened to +10.5¢, while Dec/Jan printed +11.0¢, keeping the front of the curve well supported.

Q1 continues to hold near $1.6275, and Q2 remains steady at $1.6925, maintaining a slight backwardation but an overall constructive structure. Export programs remain the key driver of front-month strength, while domestic rack demand performed seasonally normal to start the week.

Plant margins remain stable as natural gas prices trend sideways and DDG values hold elevated. No significant production disruptions were noted to begin the week.

Production Recap – Start of Week

Liquidity Energy’s internal model shows fleetwide MMBTU usage rising modestly into early week with colder weather, but operational rates remain steady.
Current estimated fleet average: ≈ 442,100 MMBTU/day, slightly above last week’s average.

Notable Movers (since Friday):

• Largest uptick: Marquis – Hennepin (+1,850 MMBTU)

• Largest decline: The Andersons – Albion (−1,600 MMBTU)

No material outages reported. Production continues tracking within normal seasonal bands.

Futures & Cash Snapshot – Monday (11/24)

Ethanol CU Futures – Settles & Spreads

Q1: 1.6275 | Q2: 1.6925 | 1H: 1.66 | Q1/Q2: −0.065

EZ/CU Contract

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

Market Insight

Monday trading showed continued commercial support ahead of the shortened holiday week. Export demand remains the primary pillar holding front spreads firm, while domestic demand remains seasonally steady.

The curve continues to behave constructively, with no major soft spots outside the expected slight dips on the back end. Physical markets (Argo, NYH, ITT) tracked closely with futures, showing healthy depth and orderly participation.

Expect lower volume into Wednesday but generally stable price action unless production unexpectedly swings.

Technicals

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The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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