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- Ethanol Market Update - 11/26/25
November 26, 2025
Overview
Market Overview
Ethanol futures held a steady tone into the mid-week holiday slowdown, with CU Nov unchanged at $1.83 and front spreads remaining firm. Nov/Dec widened modestly to +11.5¢, while Dec/Jan printed +10.5¢, keeping the prompt structure well supported despite lighter volumes ahead of Thanksgiving.
Q1 marked at $1.6225, with Q2 holding $1.69, maintaining a stable forward curve that continues to reflect strong export pull and balanced domestic inventory levels. The 1H average softened slightly to $1.6575, though structure remains fundamentally constructive.
Physical markets traded in line with futures—Argo showed mild softness in the deferred months, while NYH spot values stayed well bid, supported by ongoing barge programs and steady East Coast rack demand.
Margins remain solid across most of the fleet as natural gas prices drift sideways and co-product values stay seasonal.
Production Snapshot
Fleetwide production remains stable heading into the holiday, with no meaningful outages reported.
MMBTU consumption through Tuesday shows a slight softening as several plants trimmed run rates into the long weekend.
Current internal estimate (through 11/26):
≈ 440,900 MMBTU/day, down ~0.3% from Monday.
Notable Movers:
Husker – Aurora: +1,150 MMBTU (minor ramp-up)
Green Plains – Hereford: −1,300 MMBTU (routine slowdown)
Overall, run-rates remain well within seasonal norms.
Futures & Cash Markets – 11/25 Settles
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.830 | +0.115 |
Dec | 1.715 | +0.105 |
Jan | 1.610 | −0.0075 |
Feb | 1.6175 | −0.025 |
Mar | 1.6425 | −0.0275 |
Apr | 1.670 | −0.0225 |
May | 1.6925 | −0.015 |
Jun | 1.7075 | −0.005 |
Jul | 1.7125 | — |
Q1: 1.6225 | Q2: 1.690 | 1H: 1.6575 | Q1/Q2: −0.0675
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.900 | +0.070 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Jan | 1.7725 | +0.110 |
Feb | 1.6625 | +0.0475 |
Mar | 1.615 | −0.015 |
Apr | 1.630 | −0.0275 |
May | 1.6575 | −0.025 |
Jun | 1.6825 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.940 | +0.115 | +0.11 |
Jan | 1.825 | +0.105 | +0.11 |
Feb | 1.720 | −0.0075 | +0.11 |
Mar | 1.7275 | −0.025 | +0.11 |
Apr | 1.7525 | −0.0275 | +0.11 |
May | 1.780 | −0.0225 | +0.11 |
Jun | 1.8025 | −0.015 | +0.11 |
Jul | 1.8175 | +0.105 | +0.11 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.940 | 0.11 | +0.115 |
Dec | 1.825 | 0.11 | +0.105 |
Jan | 1.720 | 0.11 | — |
Market Insight
Prompt strength remains intact, with spreads maintaining their upward pressure despite lighter pre-holiday flows. Export buying continues to be the anchor for the front of the curve, while domestic demand shows typical late-November moderation.
The back end remains slightly softer as participants avoid committing volume ahead of year-end positioning, though the curve remains orderly and fundamentally supported.
Trading activity is expected to thin significantly today and Friday, with normal liquidity resuming early next week.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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