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- Ethanol Market Update - 11/4/25
December 19, 2025
Overview
Market Overview
Ethanol futures traded steady Tuesday following a mild retreat in energy markets, with CU November settling at $1.715 and Q1 averaging $1.6475.
The market remains in slight backwardation through Q2, reflecting healthy near-term demand, balanced with modest seasonal maintenance downtime.
Liquidity Energy’s model projects EIA ethanol production at 1.129 million b/d, up +1,000 b/d (+0.09%) from Monday.
Utilization increased slightly to 76.5%, marking an eighth consecutive weekly climb, supported by consistent throughput and stable logistics across the Midwest.
Production Metrics
Metric | Value | Δ vs Prior Report |
|---|---|---|
EIA Production Estimate | 1.129 M b/d | +0.001 M b/d (+0.09%) |
Utilization | 76.5% | +0.1% |
Daily Output | ≈ 438,300 MMBTU | +0.05% |
7-Day Avg Output | ≈ 437,500 MMBTU | +0.1% |
Largest Gain | Marquis Energy – Hennepin (+3,850 MMBTU) | |
Largest Drop | ADM – Columbus (−5,200 MMBTU) |
Corn grind rates remain firm, with no major production interruptions reported.
Margins have tightened slightly due to higher corn basis values, but prompt ethanol pricing continues to offset most of the squeeze.
Market Insight
Front-end spreads remain firm, while deferred months continue to flatten slightly.
Spot trade volumes at Argo and NYH were moderate, with market sentiment still constructive:
Nov/Dec: +5.25¢
Dec/Jan: +3.5¢
Q1/Q2: −7¢
Cash and futures continue to align with solid physical flows:
Argo Jan: $1.69 (+4.5¢ vs Feb)
NYH Dec: $1.825 (+5.25¢ vs Jan)
ITT Nov: $1.825 (+11¢ vs CU)
R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS
Gulf export markets remain well-bid, with strong forward bookings into December. Domestic rack values continue to track higher ethanol blend demand heading into colder months.
EIA Production Comparison – Early November Trend
Date | EIA Estimate (M b/d) | Δ vs Prior Day | Utilization % |
|---|---|---|---|
Oct 31 | 1.127 | — | 76.3% |
Nov 3 | 1.128 | +0.001 | 76.4% |
Nov 4 | 1.129 | +0.001 | 76.5% |
Ethanol output continues to rise modestly, with utilization showing consistent efficiency gains across key production regions.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 11/4
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.715 | +0.0525 |
Dec | 1.6625 | +0.035 |
Jan | 1.6275 | −0.0175 |
Feb | 1.645 | −0.025 |
Mar | 1.670 | −0.0275 |
Apr | 1.6975 | −0.0225 |
May | 1.720 | −0.0125 |
Jun | 1.7325 | −0.005 |
Jul | 1.7375 | — |
Q1: 1.6475 | Q2: 1.7175 | 1H: 1.6825 | Q1/Q2: −0.070
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.800 | +0.085 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Jan | 1.690 | +0.045 |
Feb | 1.645 | +0.0075 |
Mar | 1.6375 | −0.020 |
Apr | 1.6575 | −0.025 |
May | 1.6825 | −0.0275 |
Jun | 1.710 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.825 | +0.0525 | +0.110 |
Jan | 1.7725 | +0.035 | +0.110 |
Feb | 1.7375 | −0.0175 | +0.110 |
Mar | 1.755 | −0.025 | +0.110 |
Apr | 1.780 | −0.0275 | +0.110 |
May | 1.8075 | −0.0225 | +0.110 |
Jun | 1.830 | −0.0125 | +0.110 |
Jul | 1.8425 | +0.105 | +0.110 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.825 | +0.110 | +0.0525 |
Dec | 1.7725 | +0.110 | +0.035 |
Jan | 1.7375 | +0.110 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technical Picture
Ethanol futures consolidated within a narrow range of $1.66–$1.72, maintaining the mild Q1 backwardation.
Momentum indicators are stable, with RSI around 49 and near-term resistance at $1.72 (Nov CU).
A breakout above $1.73 could target the $1.75–$1.77 area, supported by strong blend economics and ongoing export activity.
Summary
Ethanol prices held steady Tuesday, with November CU settling at $1.715 and deferred spreads flattening slightly.
Liquidity Energy projects EIA production at 1.129 M b/d (+0.1%), extending the streak of output gains to eight weeks.
Physical demand remains robust, supported by export strength and steady domestic consumption.
The market enters midweek with a stable tone, underpinned by firm Q4 blending margins and strong Gulf export bookings.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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