- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 11/5/25
Market Overview
Ethanol futures moved modestly higher Wednesday, with CU November settling at $1.755, up 4.0¢ from Tuesday.
The market remains in light backwardation through Q2, with front-end firmness supported by prompt blending demand and strong Gulf export flows.
Liquidity Energy’s model projects EIA ethanol production at 1.130 million b/d, a +1,000 b/d (+0.09%) increase from Tuesday’s 1.129 M b/d.
Utilization rose to 76.6%, marking the ninth straight weekly increase, driven by steady plant throughput and favorable logistics despite early November rail congestion in the Midwest.
Production Metrics
Metric | Value | Δ vs Prior Day |
|---|---|---|
EIA Production Estimate | 1.130 M b/d | +0.001 M b/d (+0.09%) |
Utilization | 76.6% | +0.1% |
Daily Output | ≈ 438,500 MMBTU | +0.05% |
7-Day Avg Output | ≈ 437,800 MMBTU | +0.1% |
Largest Gain | POET – Chancellor (+4,100 MMBTU) | |
Largest Drop | Valero – Albion (−5,000 MMBTU) |
Corn basis remains elevated across central Iowa, but ethanol blend margins have held stable, supporting sustained production levels into mid-November.
Market Insight
Front-end spreads held firm as November contracts rolled off, reflecting ongoing spot demand and strong physical support from the Gulf Coast export market:
Nov/Dec: +7¢
Dec/Jan: +4.75¢
Q1/Q2: −6.25¢
Cash markets remain resilient, supported by stable pricing across blending hubs:
Argo Jan: $1.72 (+5.75¢ vs Feb)
NYH Dec: $1.865 (+7¢ vs Jan)
ITT Nov: $1.865 (+11¢ vs CU)
R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS
Export logistics remain robust with steady loadings out of the Gulf and East Coast terminals. Demand from Brazil and Asia continues to support forward booking strength into December.
EIA Production Comparison – Week to Date
Date | EIA Estimate (M b/d) | Δ vs Prior Day | Utilization % |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov 3 | 1.128 | — | 76.4% |
Nov 4 | 1.129 | +0.001 | 76.5% |
Nov 5 | 1.130 | +0.001 | 76.6% |
✅ Ethanol production continues to rise steadily, marking nine consecutive weeks of incremental growth and the strongest sustained output period since early summer.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 11/5
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.755 | +0.070 |
Dec | 1.685 | +0.0475 |
Jan | 1.6375 | −0.015 |
Feb | 1.6525 | −0.0225 |
Mar | 1.675 | −0.025 |
Apr | 1.700 | −0.020 |
May | 1.720 | −0.0125 |
Jun | 1.7325 | −0.0025 |
Jul | 1.735 | — |
Q1: 1.655 | Q2: 1.7175 | 1H: 1.6875 | Q1/Q2: −0.0625
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ | EZ/CU |
|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.840 | +0.085 |
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Jan | 1.720 | +0.0575 |
Feb | 1.6625 | +0.0175 |
Mar | 1.645 | −0.020 |
Apr | 1.665 | −0.0225 |
May | 1.6875 | −0.0225 |
Jun | 1.710 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.865 | +0.070 | +0.110 |
Jan | 1.795 | +0.0475 | +0.110 |
Feb | 1.7475 | −0.015 | +0.110 |
Mar | 1.7625 | −0.0225 | +0.110 |
Apr | 1.785 | −0.025 | +0.110 |
May | 1.810 | −0.020 | +0.110 |
Jun | 1.830 | −0.0125 | +0.110 |
Jul | 1.8425 | +0.1075 | +0.110 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Nov | 1.865 | +0.110 | +0.070 |
Dec | 1.795 | +0.110 | +0.0475 |
Jan | 1.7475 | +0.110 | — |
R11 Prompt
TWS: $1.9325
NWS: $1.9625
Technical Picture
Ethanol futures extended gains for a second straight session, staying within the broader consolidation band of $1.65–$1.77.
Momentum remains neutral with RSI at 52.
A close above $1.76 in CU could signal a short-term breakout toward $1.78–$1.80, while key support holds near $1.67.
Summary
Ethanol markets firmed midweek, led by front-end gains and stable physical demand.
Liquidity Energy’s model now estimates EIA ethanol output at 1.130 M b/d (+0.1%), marking another week of steady production growth.
Margins remain intact, and export demand continues to underpin price support through the Q4–Q1 transition.
The market remains technically firm and fundamentally balanced heading into Friday’s close, with utilization near 76.6%, its strongest level since June.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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