Ethanol Market Update - 11/6/25

Liquidity Energy, LLC

Author

Nicholas Coolidge
November 06, 2025

Market Overview

Ethanol futures stayed firm Thursday, with CU November settling at $1.775, up 2¢ on the day and continuing the week’s modest rally. The front-end remains well supported by export demand and blending activity, though the move still feels more like a grind higher than a breakout.

Liquidity Energy’s internal model projects EIA ethanol production at 1.131 million b/d, a slight uptick from yesterday’s 1.130 M b/d estimate. Utilization nudged up to 76.7%, continuing the slow but steady climb that’s been in place since early September.

Margins remain steady, and the Midwest crush spread continues to track in line with fall averages. Corn basis firmed slightly in the western belt, but logistics continue to normalize after last week’s rail congestion.

Production Metrics

Metric

Value

Δ vs Prior Day

EIA Production Estimate

1.131 M b/d

+0.001 M b/d (+0.09%)

Utilization

76.7%

+0.1%

Daily Output

≈ 438,900 MMBTU

+0.1%

7-Day Avg Output

≈ 438,000 MMBTU

+0.05%

Largest Gain

Flint Hills – Shell Rock (+3,900 MMBTU)

Largest Drop

POET – Caro (−4,300 MMBTU)

Production remains balanced — no major plant outages reported, and throughput continues to trend seasonally higher. We’re now on track for the tenth straight week of incremental production gains.

Market Insight

Front-end strength persisted as Nov/Dec widened to +7.5¢, and the Dec/Jan spread firmed to +5.75¢.
Seasonally, this is consistent with export pull and steady rack demand into Q4 blending deadlines.

Cash markets were mixed but well supported:

  • Argo Jan: $1.7375

  • NYH Dec: $1.885

  • ITT Nov: $1.885

  • R11 TWS/NWS: $1.9325 / $1.9625

Export offers remain steady with Gulf terminal bids unchanged. South American buying interest is helping to support prompt values, while domestic margins continue to encourage moderate production gains into mid-November.

EIA Comparison – Week to Date

Date

EIA Estimate (M b/d)

Δ vs Prior Day

Utilization %

Nov 4

1.129

—

76.5%

Nov 5

1.130

+0.001

76.6%

Nov 6

1.131

+0.001

76.7%

✅ EIA output has now increased 10 consecutive weeks, reaching its highest level since late June.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 11/6

Ethanol CU Contract

Month

Settle

Spread vs Next

Nov

1.775

+0.075

Dec

1.700

+0.0575

Jan

1.6425

−0.015

Feb

1.6575

−0.0225

Mar

1.680

−0.025

Apr

1.705

−0.020

May

1.725

−0.0125

Jun

1.7375

−0.0025

Jul

1.740

—

Q1: 1.660 | Q2: 1.7225 | 1H: 1.6925 | Q1/Q2: −0.0625

EZ/CU Contract

Month

EZ

EZ/CU

Nov

1.865

+0.090

Argo Market

Month

Settle

Spread

Jan

1.7375

+0.065

Feb

1.6725

+0.0225

Mar

1.650

−0.020

Apr

1.670

−0.0225

May

1.6925

−0.0225

Jun

1.715

—

NYH Market

Month

Settle

Spread

NYH/CU

Dec

1.885

+0.075

+0.11

Jan

1.810

+0.0575

+0.11

Feb

1.7525

−0.015

+0.11

Mar

1.7675

−0.0225

+0.11

Apr

1.790

−0.025

+0.11

May

1.815

−0.020

+0.11

Jun

1.835

−0.0125

+0.11

Jul

1.8475

+0.1075

+0.11

ITT Contract

Month

Settle

Diff

Spread

Nov

1.885

+0.110

+0.075

Dec

1.810

+0.110

+0.0575

Jan

1.7525

+0.110

—

R11 Prompt

  • TWS: $1.9325

  • NWS: $1.9625

Technical Picture

The market continues to hold inside a tight band of $1.68–$1.78, with momentum neutral to slightly bullish.
Support sits near $1.69, while resistance is layered at $1.78–$1.80.
Trend remains constructive — we’re still seeing consistent buying interest in deferred months, and carry spreads are tightening modestly.

Summary

Ethanol prices extended modest gains Thursday, maintaining their upward bias with production steady and utilization climbing to 76.7%.
Liquidity Energy’s model pegs EIA production at 1.131 M b/d, the tenth straight daily increase, and still consistent with the long-running grind higher rather than any breakout move.

Margins are healthy, export demand is steady, and cash markets continue to track well above seasonal norms.
The front-end remains tight, but nothing looks overextended — just a firm, well-supported market heading into the weekend.

Coolidge Report 11-6.pdf187.87 KB • PDF File

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Disclaimer

The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC

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