Ethanol Market Update - 11/7/25

Overview

Market Overview

Ethanol futures ticked higher Friday with the CU November contract settling at $1.780, up 0.5¢ on the day, extending this week’s firm tone. The front end continues to find support from export strength and steady blending, with spreads remaining well bid across the nearby curve.

Liquidity Energy’s latest EIA model holds production flat at 1.131 million b/d, unchanged from yesterday’s revised estimate. Utilization also steadied at 76.7%, with no significant new outages or downtime reported heading into the weekend.

Margins remain stable, with corn basis in the Western Corn Belt firming slightly, offset by steady DDG values and weaker CO₂ demand in the Midwest. Logistical flow across rail and barge remains fluid, with export activity at the Gulf continuing to underpin prompt demand.

Production Metrics

The production outlook remains consistent with seasonal expectations. Utilization rates have now held steady for three consecutive sessions, and with margins stable, the market continues to grind higher rather than spike.

Market Insight

Front-end strength continued, with the Nov/Dec spread widening to +8.5¢, and Dec/Jan firming to +6.5¢. The Q1 average sits at $1.6475, while Q2 holds at $1.7125 — keeping the curve slightly backward but stable.

Argo physical values continue to mirror futures closely, with January pegged at $1.7375, maintaining a firm premium to deferred months.

Cash markets remain strong across key hubs:

• Argo Jan: $1.7375

• NYH Dec: $1.890

• ITT Nov: $1.890

• R11 (TWS/NWS): $1.9325 / $1.9625

The market remains well supported but orderly, with recent gains driven by export activity and carry tightening, not speculative positioning.

EIA Comparison – Week to Date

✅ Ethanol production held steady for the week, marking the tenth straight week above 1.12 M b/d.
The steady production trend reflects a balanced supply-demand environment heading into mid-November.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 11/7

Ethanol CU Contract

Q1: 1.6475 | Q2: 1.7125 | 1H: 1.680 | Q1/Q2: −0.065

EZ/CU Contract

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

R11 Prompt

• TWS: $1.9325

• NWS: $1.9625

Technical Picture

The market continues to consolidate in a firm uptrend.
Support sits near $1.69, resistance layered between $1.78–$1.80.
Momentum remains mildly bullish with tighter nearby spreads and consistent export pull.

Open interest in the front-month contract rose 3.2% week-over-week, suggesting moderate new length rather than profit-taking.

Summary

Ethanol prices extended modest gains Friday, closing out the week with CU Nov at $1.780.
The front-end remains well supported by export demand and stable production fundamentals, with EIA output flat at 1.131 M b/d.

Margins are steady, utilization continues to edge higher, and the market shows no signs of dislocation — just a healthy, balanced rally into mid-November.
Heading into next week, traders will be watching for any sign of slowing output or weaker export flow, but for now, the tone stays constructive.

Technicals

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The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

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