Ethanol Market Update - 12/1/25

Overview

Market Overview

Ethanol futures closed the shortened week on a steady, orderly note heading into the Thanksgiving break. With most of the front months rolling off the board, December settled at $1.710, while Jan posted $1.605, keeping the curve soft through Q1 but still well-supported by export programs and moderate holiday-season demand.

Front spreads widened slightly:

• Dec/Jan: +10.5¢

• Jan/Feb: –1.0¢

• Feb/Mar: –2.5¢

The curve continues to reflect typical early-winter behavior — firming prompt values, softer Q1 marks, and a well-balanced back end.
Q1 marked at $1.620, with Q2 at $1.6875, leaving the 1H average near $1.655.

NYH values held up into the break, with Jan NYH at $1.8125 and a Jan/Feb spread of +9.75¢, while Argo softened slightly in deferred months as liquidity thinned.

Thanksgiving Week Production Recap (11/26 → 12/1)

Run rates eased modestly across the fleet over the holiday period as expected, with several plants trimming throughput for seasonal maintenance windows and reduced staffing.

MMBTU Estimate Through Today (12/1):

≈ 438,500 MMBTU/day
This is down roughly 0.6% from the pre-holiday level.

Week-Over-Week Notes:

• Most of the fleet ran at slightly reduced load, typical for Thanksgiving week.

• No major plant outages; reductions were primarily operational pacing rather than mechanical issues.

• Western Corn Belt plants showed the softest output as localized corn basis firmed into the weekend.

• Co-product values (DDG, corn oil, CO₂) remained supportive, offsetting some of the softer ethanol margins.

• We expect a return to normal throughput beginning Tuesday/Wednesday as crews resume full schedules.

Largest Movers Over the Break:

• POET – Gowrie: +1,900 MMBTU (returned to normal rates earlier than expected)

• Flint Hills – Shell Rock: −2,050 MMBTU (holiday slowdown + basis firmness)

Overall, production stayed orderly and well within seasonal norms.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 11/26 (Pre-Holiday Close)

Ethanol CU Contract

Q1: 1.620 | Q2: 1.6875 | 1H: 1.655 | Q1/Q2: −0.0675

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

Market Insight

Holiday-thinned liquidity dictated much of Wednesday’s trade, but the overall tone remained steady. The softening in Q1 is consistent with historical seasonal patterns as blending demand eases, while export fixtures and Gulf/EC barge flow continue to anchor the prompt market.

The back half of 2025 remains well-supported by forward buyers hedging into mid-year. Cash markets should normalize starting tomorrow, with Argo and NYH volume expected to pick up as traders reenter the market post-holiday.

Technicals

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