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- Ethanol Market Update - 12/10/25
December 12, 2025
Overview
Market Overview
Ethanol futures eased slightly Tuesday as the front end continued to soften, with CU Dec settling at $1.650, down 2.25¢ on the day. The curve continues to leak lower in a steady, orderly fashion as year-end positioning and a weaker physical tone keep pressure on the nearby months.
Spreads were mixed but mostly softer — Dec/Jan down to +8.0¢, while Jan/Feb slipped to −1.75¢ as forward demand remains quiet and holiday slowdown rolls in. The rest of the curve held its structure, but sentiment remains defensive.
On the cash side, Argo continued to follow futures lower, with the spring strip printing new cycle lows. NYH held slightly better on limited barge availability, but overall tone remains soft.
Production Snapshot
Liquidity Energy’s internal model shows U.S. ethanol production unchanged at 1.128 million b/d, holding flat for a third session. Utilization sits at 76.4%, reflecting stable but uninspired plant run rates during seasonal demand slowdown.
Daily MMBTU output: ~437,000 MMBTU
7-Day Average: ~437,300 MMBTU (flat on the week)
No notable outages or mechanical disruptions were reported. Basis remains steady, and coproduct markets continue to provide modest support.
Market Insight
The front end continues to grind lower as physical demand thins and export programs ease into mid-December. The broader energy complex remains directionless, adding little support or pressure.
Key moves from Tuesday’s session:
Ethanol CU Contract (Settles 12/9)
• Dec: 1.650
• Jan: 1.570 (−1.75¢ spread)
• Feb: 1.5875
• Mar: 1.615
• Apr: 1.645
• May: 1.6675
• Jun: 1.6825
• Jul: 1.6875
Q1: 1.590 | Q2: 1.665 | 1H: 1.6275 | Q1/Q2: −0.075
Argo (12/9 Settles)
• Mar: 1.610
• Apr: 1.5775
• May: 1.600
• Jun: 1.630
• Jul: 1.6575
Forward structure continues to soften as producers stay well covered and buyers remain quiet.
NYH (12/9 Settles)
• Jan: 1.7525
• Feb: 1.680
• Mar: 1.6975
• Apr: 1.725
• May: 1.755
• Jun: 1.7775
• Jul: 1.7925
NYH differential remains steady at +10.25¢, supported by firm barge values.
ITT Contract
• Dec: 1.760
• Jan: 1.680
Technical Picture
The market continues to drift lower within the broader $1.62–$1.70 band. Nearby contracts are testing the lower end of that range, with selling largely flow-driven rather than structural. Momentum remains soft but not panicked.
Support: $1.635
Resistance: $1.675–$1.69
Summary
Futures softened again Tuesday as the holiday slowdown takes hold and physical demand stays light. Production remains steady at 1.128M b/d, and with few supply disruptions, the market is leaning on the softer side of the range.
Today’s tone is cautious but orderly, with participants waiting for the next catalyst — likely next week’s EIA and updated export lineups.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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