Ethanol Market Update - 12/11/25

Overview

Market Overview

Ethanol futures eased slightly Thursday, with CU Dec settling at $1.6475, down modestly as the front end continues to consolidate after last week’s stronger buying. While outright values softened, the curve remains orderly — Dec/Jan at +7.0¢, Jan/Feb −1.75¢, and Q1 holding steady at $1.5975.

Spot liquidity remains thin as we move deeper into December, but the tone remains balanced. Warmer weather has softened near-term rack demand, yet export scheduling and forward Gulf programs continue to provide a cushion under Q1 and 1H structure. Corn basis is unchanged to slightly easier, and DDG demand remains firm.

Production remains stable, with our internal tracking holding national output near the 1.118–1.123 million b/d window — essentially flat week-over-week and consistent with holiday-season operating patterns.

Production Snapshot

Plants continue to run at steady, disciplined rates heading into mid-December, with no major outages or operational disruptions reported.

Market Detail

Curve Notes

• Q1 at $1.5975 remains the anchor for winter blending demand.

• Q2 at $1.6725 is unchanged, keeping the front/back spread structure stable.

• 1H sits at $1.635, reflecting the mild backwardation between winter and spring.

Spreads

• Dec/Jan: +7.0¢

• Jan/Feb: −1.75¢

• Feb/Mar: −2.75¢

• Mar/Apr: −3.0¢

The softening Jan/Feb and Feb/Mar continues to signal comfortable near-term supply despite firming export flow.

Cash & Regional Markets

Argo

Argo dips slightly but maintains orderly structure:

NYH

NYH remains firm relative to CU, with differentials steady:

ITT

ITT continues to mirror NYH structure:

Technical Picture

Futures remain confined to a $1.63–$1.67 range, with momentum neutral but stable. While the recent softness has taken some steam out of the front, the market continues to find support on dips and maintains a constructive forward profile.

Resistance: $1.67–$1.68
Support: $1.63

Open interest is low but unchanged, typical for December trading flow.

Summary

Thursday brought a steady, slightly softer session for ethanol futures, with CU Dec down to $1.6475 and the curve maintaining its orderly structure. Despite the softening, fundamentals remain balanced: production is stable, export demand steady, and regional cash markets continue to track futures cleanly.

The tone remains calm and well-supported heading into mid-month.

Technicals

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