Ethanol Market Update - 12/12/25

Market Overview

Ethanol futures held steady to slightly firmer into Friday, with the curve continuing to grind higher despite light year-end liquidity. CU December settled at $1.66, up modestly on the week, while nearby spreads remain supported even as outright prices consolidate.

The market remains orderly with no signs of forced length or distress selling. Forward structure continues to reflect balanced supply and steady downstream demand, keeping the curve shallow but intact.

Production & Fundamentals

U.S. ethanol production remains stable into mid-December, with plants largely operating at normal winter rates. No material outages have surfaced, and logistics remain fluid across the Midwest and Gulf corridors.

Key fundamentals remain unchanged:

• Corn input costs are steady

• Co-product values remain supportive

• Export flows continue at a consistent, manageable pace

Overall, the production environment remains well balanced heading into the final weeks of the year.

Market Insight

Front-end spreads continue to do most of the talking:

• Dec/Jan settled at +6.5¢

• Jan/Feb at −2.0¢, keeping the nearby curve modestly backward

• Q1 average: $1.6175

• Q2 average: $1.6925

• 1H average: $1.655

• Q1/Q2: −7.5¢

The structure reflects steady demand without urgency — supportive, but not overheated. Deferred months continue to inch higher, keeping longer-dated downside limited.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 12/11

Ethanol CU Contract

Q1: 1.6175 | Q2: 1.6925 | 1H: 1.655 | Q1/Q2: −0.075

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

Technical Picture

Ethanol futures continue to respect the broader consolidation range established over the past two weeks. Nearby support remains near $1.58–$1.60, while resistance builds into the $1.70–$1.72 zone.

Spreads remain constructive, suggesting the market is being held by commercial positioning rather than speculative flow. With year-end approaching, volatility is expected to remain muted barring a fundamental surprise.

Summary

Ethanol markets remain firm but patient heading into the end of the week. CU December settled at $1.66, with spreads holding structure and deferred months gradually firming.

The market continues to reflect balance - steady production, stable demand, and no immediate catalysts to disrupt the curve. Attention now turns to year-end positioning and early Q1 demand signals.

Technicals

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