Ethanol Market Update - 12/15/25

Overview

Market Overview

Ethanol futures opened the new week steady after a quiet Friday session, with markets continuing to digest softer prompt values and a flatter nearby curve. CU December settled Friday at $1.66, unchanged on the session, while the forward strip remains under mild pressure amid seasonally slower demand and balanced production.

The curve continues to reflect a defensive tone, with strength gradually shifting away from the front month and into deferred spring values. Liquidity has thinned somewhat as year-end approaches, but spreads remain orderly and well-defined.

Production & Fundamentals

Production levels remain stable heading into mid-December, with no widespread outages or logistical disruptions reported. Utilization continues to track in line with seasonal norms, and inventories appear manageable despite lighter blending demand.

Over the past week, ethanol production held within a tight range, reinforcing the market’s current equilibrium — steady output, muted demand growth, and limited volatility.

Margins remain mixed. Corn values have stabilized, while coproduct pricing has softened modestly, keeping plant economics workable but less attractive than earlier in the quarter.

Market Insight

Front-end spreads softened modestly into Friday’s close:

• Dec/Jan: +6.5¢

• Jan/Feb: −1.75¢

The Q1 average sits at $1.615, while Q2 holds at $1.69, keeping the curve gently backward but flatter than earlier this month. The 1H average of $1.6525 reflects the ongoing compression in nearby structure.

Argo and NYH markets tracked futures closely, with no major basis shifts observed. Export interest remains present but measured, while domestic rack demand continues to reflect typical winter patterns.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 12/12

Ethanol CU Contract

Q1: 1.615 | Q2: 1.690 | 1H: 1.6525 | Q1/Q2: −0.075

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

Technical Picture

Ethanol futures remain rangebound, with $1.58–$1.60 acting as near-term support and resistance building near $1.70–$1.72. Momentum is neutral, with limited speculative participation and a market largely driven by commercial flow.

Open interest continues to decline modestly as calendar year-end approaches, consistent with seasonal positioning behavior.

Summary

Ethanol markets enter the week steady and balanced following Friday’s quiet close. CU December held at $1.66, with spreads softening slightly but remaining orderly across the curve. Production remains stable, demand seasonally muted, and the overall tone remains cautious but controlled.

With limited catalysts ahead and holiday schedules approaching, markets are likely to remain rangebound in the near term barring unexpected shifts in production or demand.

Technicals

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The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

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