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- Ethanol Market Update - 12/17/25
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Market Overview
Ethanol futures finished Tuesday modestly softer, continuing the gradual post-rally correction seen over the past week. CU December settled at $1.6525, down slightly on the session, while January closed at $1.58, keeping the front of the curve under mild pressure.
The market remains orderly and well supplied, with no material disruptions reported. Recent selling appears technical in nature rather than fundamentally driven, as demand indicators remain steady and production continues to run in line with expectations.
Production Update
U.S. ethanol production remains stable heading into the second half of December. Plant run rates are consistent, with utilization holding near recent averages. No widespread maintenance issues or logistics constraints have emerged, keeping the supply side balanced.
While seasonal demand typically softens into year-end, the current operating environment suggests producers are maintaining disciplined output levels, preventing excess inventory accumulation.
Market Insight
Spreads softened slightly but remain positive in the near months:
Dec/Jan: +7.25¢
Q1 Average: $1.60
Q2 Average: $1.6725
Q1/Q2: −7.25¢
The curve continues to reflect mild backwardation, though the structure has flattened compared to earlier in the month. This signals steady demand but reduced urgency from spot buyers as we move closer to year-end.
Cash markets followed futures lower:
NYH January: $1.755
ITT December: $1.7625
Argo Spring Values: Continued gradual softening through April and May
The East Coast premium remains intact but has narrowed modestly alongside futures.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 12/16
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.6525 | +0.0725 |
Jan | 1.5800 | −0.0175 |
Feb | 1.5975 | −0.0275 |
Mar | 1.6250 | −0.0300 |
Apr | 1.6550 | −0.0225 |
May | 1.6775 | −0.0150 |
Jun | 1.6925 | −0.0050 |
Jul | 1.6975 | — |
Q1: 1.60 | Q2: 1.675 | 1H: 1.6375
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Mar | 1.6175 | +0.0275 |
Apr | 1.5900 | −0.0225 |
May | 1.6125 | −0.0275 |
Jun | 1.6400 | −0.0275 |
Jul | 1.6675 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan | 1.7550 | +0.0650 | +0.1025 |
Feb | 1.6900 | −0.0175 | +0.11 |
Mar | 1.7075 | −0.0275 | +0.11 |
Apr | 1.7350 | −0.0300 | +0.11 |
May | 1.7650 | −0.0225 | +0.11 |
Jun | 1.7875 | −0.0150 | +0.11 |
Jul | 1.8025 | +0.1050 | +0.11 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.7625 | +0.11 | +0.0725 |
Jan | 1.6900 | +0.11 | — |
Technical Picture
Ethanol futures continue to trade within a well-defined consolidation range. Near-term support sits around $1.58–$1.60, while resistance remains near $1.68–$1.70. Momentum has slowed, but the broader structure remains constructive as long as Q1 holds above the low $1.60s.
Open interest trends suggest positioning is being reduced rather than aggressively flipped short.
Summary
Ethanol markets eased modestly on Tuesday, with CU Dec settling at $1.6525 and the curve flattening further into year-end. Production remains steady, demand is stable, and spreads continue to signal balance rather than stress.
The market appears to be in a holding pattern as participants look toward holiday liquidity, year-end positioning, and early Q1 demand signals.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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