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- Ethanol Market Update - 12/19/25
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Market Overview
Ethanol futures finished Thursday little changed, with values continuing to consolidate near the lower end of the recent range. The curve remains under mild pressure, particularly across the front half of 2026, as spreads soften and nearby demand remains steady but unspectacular.
The market continues to digest seasonal demand dynamics, with winter blending levels limiting upside while export flows remain consistent enough to prevent sharper downside. Price action remains orderly, with no signs of forced selling or dislocation across the forward curve.
Production Update
U.S. ethanol production remains steady into late December, with Liquidity Energy’s internal model showing output largely unchanged from prior sessions. Plants continue to run at stable utilization rates, supported by manageable corn costs and steady coproduct values.
Estimated Production: ~1.13 MMbpd
Utilization: ~76–77%
Operating Environment: Stable, with no widespread outages reported
With the holiday period approaching, production is expected to remain flat to slightly lower, consistent with typical seasonal patterns.
Futures & Curve Structure
Ethanol CU (12/18 Settles)
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.66 | +0.065 |
Jan | 1.595 | −0.0175 |
Feb | 1.6125 | −0.0275 |
Mar | 1.64 | −0.030 |
Apr | 1.67 | −0.020 |
May | 1.69 | −0.0125 |
Jun | 1.7025 | −0.005 |
Jul | 1.7075 | — |
Q1 Avg: 1.615
Q2 Avg: 1.6875
1H Avg: 1.6525
Q1/Q2: −0.0725
Front-end spreads remain backward but compressed, reflecting adequate nearby supply and limited urgency from blenders.
Cash Markets
Argo
Mar: 1.6275
Apr: 1.605
May: 1.6275
Jun: 1.655
Jul: 1.68
Argo continues to track futures closely, with no material dislocations observed.
NYH
Jan: 1.7625 (NYH/CU +10.25¢)
Feb: 1.705
Mar: 1.7225
Apr: 1.75
May: 1.78
Jun: 1.80
Jul: 1.8125
NYH premiums remain stable, reflecting consistent East Coast demand and logistics balance.
ITT
Dec: 1.77
Jan: 1.705
Market Insight
The ethanol market remains rangebound, with futures struggling to regain upside momentum as calendar spreads soften and prompt demand plateaus. Q1 values continue to drift lower relative to Q2, keeping the curve modestly backward but flattening.
Absent a material shift in export demand or an unexpected production disruption, near-term trade is likely to remain technical and spread-driven. End users appear comfortable with coverage, while producers remain disciplined on forward sales.
Summary
Ethanol futures closed Thursday steady to slightly softer, with CU Dec settling at $1.66 and the forward curve continuing to grind sideways. Production remains stable, cash markets are orderly, and spreads suggest a well-supplied near-term environment.
As the market heads deeper into the holiday period, attention will remain on export flows and any post-year-end shifts in blending economics.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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