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- Ethanol Market Update - 12/2/25
December 13, 2025
Overview
Market Overview
Ethanol futures started December on a steady but slightly softer tone as the market returned from the Thanksgiving break. CU December settled at $1.710, unchanged on the day, while deferred months continued to ease modestly as production held firm throughout the holiday stretch.
The curve remains relatively stable: Q1 at $1.615, Q2 at $1.6825, and 1H holding near $1.650. Spreads were mostly unchanged, with Dec/Jan at +11.0¢ and Jan/Feb near flat at –1.0¢.
Cash markets reopened quietly after the long weekend. Argo prompt assessments remain posted at $1.99, but active liquidity returns today with increased end-of-month scheduling. NYH values remain firm, with Jan at $1.8125 and a stable NYH/CU diff of +0.1025.
Export interest remains healthy, though vessel lineups slowed over the break. Gulf freight is strengthening again, which may influence December/January export margins later this week.
Thanksgiving Week Production Recap (11/26 → 12/1)
Despite the shortened trading schedule, plant operations remained stable across the sector.
Metric | Value | Δ vs Pre-Holiday |
|---|---|---|
Estimated U.S. Production | 1.130–1.135 million b/d | Flat |
Utilization Rate | 76.5–76.7% | Flat |
Daily Output (MMBTU) | ~437,000–439,000 | Slight ±0.3% intraday variance |
7-Day Rolling Output | ≈ 438,000 MMBTU | +0.1% |
Key Notes:
No major downtime reported over the break.
Two Western Corn Belt plants increased rates slightly (+1.5–2.0%), offsetting small reductions at three Midwestern facilities.
Inventory draws softened over the holiday due to slower rail & barge movement, but resupply is back on schedule today.
Rack demand remained seasonally steady; exports are still the primary front-end driver.
Overall, production remained impressively consistent through the holiday, creating a stable runway for early-December pricing.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 12/1 (Monday)
These are yesterday’s settlements; today's will be emailed with the full recap tomorrow morning.
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.710 | +0.110 |
Jan | 1.600 | –0.010 |
Feb | 1.610 | –0.025 |
Mar | 1.635 | –0.0275 |
Apr | 1.6625 | –0.0225 |
May | 1.685 | –0.015 |
Jun | 1.700 | –0.005 |
Jul | 1.705 | — |
Quarterlies:
Q1: 1.615
Q2: 1.6825
1H: 1.650
Q1/Q2: –0.0675
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Mar | 1.655 | +0.050 |
Apr | 1.605 | –0.0175 |
May | 1.6225 | –0.0275 |
Jun | 1.650 | –0.025 |
Jul | 1.675 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan | 1.8125 | +0.1025 | +0.1025 |
Feb | 1.710 | –0.010 | +0.110 |
Mar | 1.720 | –0.025 | +0.110 |
Apr | 1.745 | –0.0275 | +0.110 |
May | 1.7725 | –0.0225 | +0.110 |
Jun | 1.795 | –0.015 | +0.110 |
Jul | 1.810 | +0.105 | +0.110 |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.820 | +0.110 | +0.110 |
Jan | 1.710 | +0.110 | — |
Market Insight
The complex feels balanced heading into December. While futures have eased 1–2¢ across the middle of the curve, overall sentiment is neutral to moderately supportive:
Production is stable.
Export interest remains firm.
Corn basis is seasonally mixed but not pressuring margins.
No major operational disruptions flagged.
Front-end firmness is likely to persist as logistics fully normalize post-holiday and year-end positioning increases later this week.
Summary
Ethanol markets reopened from Thanksgiving in stable shape, with moderate futures softness but steady production and cash values. The curve remains tidy, spreads are orderly, and operational fundamentals continue to support a balanced tone as December begins.
Today’s trading sessions should offer clearer direction as liquidity returns and export flows resume.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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