Ethanol Market Update - 12/22/25

Overview

Market Overview

Ethanol futures finished the week modestly softer, with trade continuing to consolidate near the lower end of the recent range as the market heads into the holiday stretch. Price action remains orderly, with no signs of stress across the forward curve, though momentum remains muted.

Front-end values eased slightly Friday, reflecting seasonally slower blending demand and limited urgency from end users. Export flows remain steady, providing a floor under the market, while producers continue to show discipline on forward sales. Overall, the market tone remains balanced but defensive.

Production Update

U.S. ethanol production remained stable through the end of last week, with Liquidity Energy’s internal model showing little day-to-day variation.

• Estimated Production: ~1.13 MMbpd

• Utilization: ~76–77%

• Operating Environment: Stable, with no widespread outages reported

With the Christmas holiday approaching, output is expected to remain flat to slightly lower, consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Corn costs and coproduct values continue to support steady plant economics.

Futures & Curve Structure

Ethanol CU (12/19 Settles)

• Q1 Avg: 1.5975

• Q2 Avg: 1.6700

• 1H Avg: 1.6350

• Q1/Q2: −0.0725

The curve remains modestly backward but continues to flatten, reflecting adequate nearby supply and limited near-term demand urgency.

Cash Markets

Argo

• Mar: 1.615

• Apr: 1.585

• May: 1.610

• Jun: 1.6375

• Jul: 1.6625

Argo pricing continues to track futures closely, with no notable dislocations observed.

NYH

• Jan: 1.755 (NYH/CU +10.25¢)

• Feb: 1.685

• Mar: 1.705

• Apr: 1.7325

• May: 1.7625

• Jun: 1.7825

• Jul: 1.795

NYH premiums remain steady, supported by consistent East Coast demand and stable logistics.

ITT

• Dec: 1.7625

• Jan: 1.685

Market Insight

The ethanol market continues to trade sideways as it enters the holiday period, with spreads gradually softening and Q1 values underperforming Q2. End-user coverage appears adequate, while producers remain disciplined, limiting both upside and downside volatility.

Absent a material shift in export demand or an unexpected production disruption, near-term trade is likely to remain technical and spread-driven into year-end.

Summary

Ethanol futures closed last week slightly softer, with CU Dec settling at $1.6525 and the forward curve continuing to flatten. Production remains steady, cash markets are orderly, and spreads suggest a well-supplied near-term environment.

As the market moves deeper into the holiday period, attention will remain on export flows, year-end positioning, and any post-holiday shifts in blending economics.

Technicals

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Disclaimer

The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

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