Ethanol Market Update - 12/23/25

Overview

Market Overview

Ethanol futures closed Tuesday steady to slightly softer, continuing the late-December consolidation phase as the market settles into year-end trade. CU December settled at $1.65, holding near the lower end of the recent range with limited directional conviction.

Market activity remains orderly and largely spread-driven. Seasonal demand constraints are keeping upside capped, while steady export flow and stable production continue to limit downside risk. Liquidity remains thinner as the holiday period approaches, but no signs of stress or forced positioning are evident across the curve.

Production Update

U.S. ethanol production remains stable heading into the final full trading week of the year. Liquidity Energy’s internal production model shows output holding near recent levels, with no meaningful changes in utilization or regional operating conditions.

• Estimated Production: ~1.13 MMbpd

• Utilization: ~76–77%

• Operating Environment: Stable; no widespread outages reported

Seasonal maintenance and holiday staffing typically result in flat to slightly lower output during this period, a pattern consistent with current conditions.

Futures & Curve Structure

Ethanol CU – 12/23 Settles

Q1 Avg: 1.5925
Q2 Avg: 1.6675
1H Avg: 1.63
Q1/Q2: −7.5¢

Front-end backwardation persists but remains compressed. The curve continues to signal adequate nearby supply with limited urgency from blenders, while deferred values remain well supported by stable cost structure and disciplined producer selling.

Cash Markets

Argo

• Mar: 1.61

• Apr: 1.58

• May: 1.6075

• Jun: 1.635

• Jul: 1.66

Argo values tracked futures closely, with no notable dislocations or liquidity issues observed.

NYH

• Jan: 1.7525 (NYH/CU +10.25¢)

• Feb: 1.6775

• Mar: 1.7025

• Apr: 1.73

• May: 1.76

• Jun: 1.78

• Jul: 1.7925

NYH premiums remain steady, reflecting balanced East Coast demand and stable logistics.

ITT

• Dec: 1.76

• Jan: 1.6775

Market Insight

The ethanol market continues to trade in a well-defined range, with futures struggling to generate momentum as calendar spreads soften modestly. The Q1/Q2 discount remains intact, reflecting seasonal demand headwinds and comfortable nearby supply.

Absent a material shift in export demand or an unexpected production disruption, near-term trade is expected to remain technical, with most activity focused on roll management and spread positioning rather than outright length.

Producers appear disciplined on forward sales, while end users remain adequately covered into early 2026.

Technical Picture

• Support: $1.55–$1.57 (Jan CU)

• Resistance: $1.68–$1.70 (front months)

Momentum remains neutral to slightly bearish, with no confirmed trend break. Open interest has remained stable, indicating commercial participation rather than speculative repositioning.

Summary

Ethanol futures closed Tuesday steady, with CU Dec settling at $1.65 as the market continues to consolidate into year-end. Production remains stable, cash markets are orderly, and the forward curve reflects a balanced supply environment.

As the holiday period approaches, attention will remain on export flows, post-year-end blending economics, and any early signals of demand normalization in January.

Technicals

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Disclaimer

The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC