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- Ethanol Market Update - 12/3/25
December 13, 2025
Overview
Market Overview
Ethanol futures softened slightly Tuesday as the front of the curve continued to ease following last week’s holiday-thinned trade. Dec settled at $1.695, down modestly, while Jan printed $1.595, holding the new-month rollover range. The broader curve remains orderly, with small day-to-day adjustments across deferred months but no major fundamental shift.
Production model kept output near recent trend levels, with steady plant operations and no material deviations in daily volume. Despite a quieter post-holiday tone in the physical market, logistics remain smooth, export interest steady, and domestic demand seasonally stable.
Front spreads weakened a touch: Dec/Jan at +10.0¢, Jan/Feb at –1.25¢, and Feb/Mar at –2.5¢, consistent with a calm, balanced supply environment.
Production Snapshot
Holiday operations resumed normally coming into December.
Plants continued to run comfortably in the low–mid 1.13M b/d range
Utilization held just below 76%
No notable downtime or production disruptions observed
Output variability has been minimal for ~10 consecutive sessions
The market remains well-supplied but not burdensome, with production stability providing a predictable backdrop for early-December trade.
Market Detail
Ethanol CU Futures (12/2 Settles)
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.695 | +0.100 |
Jan | 1.595 | –0.0125 |
Feb | 1.6075 | –0.025 |
Mar | 1.6325 | –0.0275 |
Apr | 1.660 | –0.020 |
May | 1.680 | –0.015 |
Jun | 1.695 | –0.005 |
Jul | 1.700 | — |
Q1: 1.6125 | Q2: 1.6775 | 1H: 1.645 | Q1/Q2: –0.065
Argo Cash Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Mar | 1.645 | +0.045 |
Apr | 1.600 | –0.020 |
May | 1.620 | –0.0275 |
Jun | 1.6475 | –0.0225 |
Jul | 1.670 | — |
NYH Cash Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan | 1.7975 | +0.0925 | +0.1025 |
Feb | 1.705 | –0.0125 | +0.11 |
Mar | 1.7175 | –0.025 | +0.11 |
Apr | 1.7425 | –0.0275 | +0.11 |
May | 1.770 | –0.020 | +0.11 |
Jun | 1.790 | –0.015 | +0.11 |
Jul | 1.805 | +0.105 | +0.11 |
Aug | 1.700 | — | — |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.805 | 0.11 | +0.100 |
Jan | 1.705 | 0.11 | — |
Technical Picture
The market remains rangebound, with futures now trading comfortably within the $1.58–$1.70 band. Nearby softness looks more mechanical than fundamental, with deferreds holding firm and spreads drifting narrowly.
Key levels:
Support: $1.585–1.595 (Jan)
Resistance: $1.705–1.715 (Dec/Jan highs)
Momentum is mildly bearish short-term but structurally neutral as we move deeper into December.
Summary
Ethanol futures eased slightly Tuesday, with Dec and Jan both posting small declines and the curve maintaining a calm, balanced structure. Production stability remains the headline — output continues to track with almost no deviation, supporting the steady tone across futures and cash.
Today’s market tone opens quiet but orderly, with spreads, cash values, and curve structure all in line with expectations.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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