Overview

Market Overview

Ethanol futures softened slightly mid-week, with CU Dec settling at $1.670 and the front spread Dec/Jan at +9.0¢. The curve remains relatively stable, though the forward structure continues to show modest seasonal weakness through Q1 as blending demand tapers and producers remain consistently online.

The broader market tone is steady. Export inquiries remain active but not aggressive, freight is mixed depending on corridor, and domestic racks are trading closely with paper. Overall liquidity is normal for early December.

Production has been firm through the post-holiday period. Plants have returned from the Thanksgiving slowdown with output levels trending slightly above seasonal norms. No material outages or logistical constraints are reported.

Production Recap (Nov 26 → Dec 3)

• Production range: 1.117–1.123 million b/d

• Today’s estimate (Dec 4): 1.121 million b/d

• Utilization: 75.7%

• 7-day momentum: Slightly higher (+0.2%)

• Notable movement:

  • A handful of Midwest plants increased grind as margins improved modestly.

  • Several smaller assets remain at reduced rates but total impact is negligible.

Overall, the production environment remains stable, consistent, and broadly well-balanced relative to demand.

Market Insight

The front of the curve is holding its footing despite soft energy sentiment. Dec/Jan at +9.0¢ and Jan/Feb at –1.5¢ reflect a market transitioning toward winter blending patterns.

Argo and NYH both traded calmly:

• Argo Mar: $1.625

• NYH Jan: $1.7725 (Jan/Feb +8.25¢)

• ITT Dec: $1.780

R11 remains steady with minimal change.

Overall tone is neutral-to-slightly-soft, typical for early December.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 12/3

Ethanol CU Contract

Q1: 1.600 | Q2: 1.670 | 1H: 1.635 | Q1/Q2: −0.070

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT

Technical Picture

• Price action remains range-bound between $1.65–$1.69, with momentum neutral.

• Immediate support sits at $1.66, resistance at $1.70–$1.72.

• Spreads reflect a classic winter softening as blend demand cools.

Open interest is stable and skewed toward commercial positioning rather than speculative flow.

Summary

Ethanol futures traded quietly Wednesday with Dec at $1.67, while the front spreads weakened slightly.
Production across the Thanksgiving window held stable to marginally higher, with no operational disruptions reported.

Macro tone is neutral heading into the end of the week, with the curve maintaining its seasonal shape and cash markets trading orderly.

Technicals

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