- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 12/5/25
Market Overview
Ethanol futures saw another quiet but slightly softer session heading into the end of the week. CU December settled at $1.645, down modestly as the front-end continues to drift lower amid lighter holiday-period participation and steady production.
The forward curve eased again with Jan at $1.57 and Feb at $1.585, leaving the front-quarter average at $1.59, while Q2 holds near $1.6625. The overall structure remains stable: mildly backward on Q1 vs Q2, and orderly across the spring/summer strip.
Cash remained muted as well — limited liquidity in Argo and NYH ahead of the weekend, with most participants working through contracted volumes rather than spot moves.
Production & Operations
Our model continues to show U.S. ethanol production holding steady, with daily output running at a flat to slightly softer bias this week. No major operational disruptions were observed, and rail/terminal loadout activity remains normal for early December.
Plants appear to be running consistently at seasonal norms, with utilization holding close to recent averages. Margins remain mixed — corn basis is steady to slightly firmer in the Western Corn Belt, while DDG values are softening into year-end.
Market Insight
Spreads weakened slightly across the curve:
Dec/Jan: +7.5¢
Jan/Feb: –1.5¢
Feb/Mar: –2.75¢
Mar/Apr: –3.0¢
Apr/May: –2.25¢
May/Jun: –1.75¢
Jun/Jul: –0.5¢
The soft pricing tone reflects:
• Normal pre-holiday thinning of volume
• Stable production data
• Minimal spot export activity this week
• Seasonal demand that’s firm but not accelerating
NYH remained in line with futures, with Jan at $1.7475 and spreads largely unchanged across the curve.
RBOB/ethanol correlations remain steady, with no major shifts in blend economics as crude markets continue fluctuating inside their current range.
Futures & Cash Settlements — 12/4
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.645 | +0.075 |
Jan | 1.57 | –0.015 |
Feb | 1.585 | –0.0275 |
Mar | 1.6125 | –0.03 |
Apr | 1.6425 | –0.0225 |
May | 1.665 | –0.0175 |
Jun | 1.6825 | –0.005 |
Jul | 1.6875 | — |
Q1: 1.590 | Q2: 1.6625 | 1H: 1.6275 | Q1/Q2: –0.0725
Argo Market
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Mar | 1.6075 | +0.030 |
Apr | 1.5775 | –0.0225 |
May | 1.6000 | –0.0275 |
Jun | 1.6275 | –0.0275 |
Jul | 1.655 | — |
NYH Market
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan | 1.7475 | +0.0675 | +0.1025 |
Feb | 1.68 | –0.015 | +0.11 |
Mar | 1.695 | –0.0275 | +0.11 |
Apr | 1.7225 | –0.03 | +0.11 |
May | 1.7525 | –0.0225 | +0.11 |
Jun | 1.775 | –0.0175 | +0.11 |
Jul | 1.7925 | +0.105 | +0.11 |
Aug | 1.6875 | — | — |
ITT Contract
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.755 | 0.11 | +0.075 |
Jan | 1.68 | 0.11 | — |
Technical Picture
Futures continue to trade inside the $1.63–$1.68 range, with pressure developing at the lower end of the band. Support is visible at $1.62, while resistance remains around $1.68–$1.69.
Momentum is neutral-sluggish, and volume remains on the lighter side.
Summary
Ethanol futures softened slightly Thursday as year-end trading conditions settle in. Production remains steady and orderly, and spreads compressed modestly across the curve. Cash was quiet, with thin participation and no strong directional moves.
The tone is steady, seasonal, and generally well balanced.
If you’d like, I can also prepare a week-ahead outlook for Monday’s report.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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