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- Ethanol Market Update - 12/8/25
December 12, 2025
Overview
Market Overview
Ethanol futures eased modestly into the end of last week, with CU Dec settling at $1.645 and Jan at $1.570, as the market continued to digest soft spot demand and balanced production. The forward curve remains narrow but stable, with nearby spreads still reflecting a slight softening in buying interest ahead of year-end.
Liquidity Energy’s internal EIA model holds steady at 1.108–1.112 million b/d for this week’s implied output range, with an updated estimate of ~1.110 million b/d for Wednesday’s print. Utilization trends remain in line with late-November performance, and no major plant outages or feedstock disruptions were reported through the close of last week.
Export markets continue to provide an important baseline of demand, although freight bottlenecks and year-end scheduling windows have created uneven week-to-week flows. Domestic rack demand has been seasonally soft but consistent.
Production Summary
Production remained steady through the end of last week, with daily modeled output holding in a tight band:
Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Model EIA Production | ≈ 1.110 M b/d | Flat to slightly firmer |
Daily Output (MMBTU) | ≈ 431,000 | Stable |
7-Day Avg Output | ≈ 430,800 | -0.1% |
Largest Gain | Midwest Group +1,400 MMBTU | — |
Largest Decline | Plains Operator −1,200 MMBTU | — |
Production consistency remains the defining feature of early December — very little volatility, healthy utilization, and no major shifts in plant behavior.
Market Detail – Futures & Cash
(Settles from Friday 12/5)
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.645 | Dec/Jan +0.075 |
Jan | 1.570 | Jan/Feb −0.015 |
Feb | 1.585 | Feb/Mar −0.0275 |
Mar | 1.6125 | Mar/Apr −0.030 |
Apr | 1.6425 | Apr/May −0.0225 |
May | 1.665 | May/Jun −0.0175 |
Jun | 1.6825 | Jun/Jul −0.005 |
Jul | 1.6875 | — |
Q1: 1.590 | Q2: 1.6625 | 1H: 1.6275
Curve remains smooth with modest backwardation easing into spring.
Argo
Month | Settle | Spread |
|---|---|---|
Mar | 1.6075 | +0.030 |
Apr | 1.5775 | −0.0225 |
May | 1.6000 | −0.0275 |
Jun | 1.6275 | −0.0275 |
Jul | 1.6550 | — |
Argo mirrors the mild softness seen in futures, with spreads reflecting tempered prompt interest.
NYH
Month | Settle | Spread | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan | 1.7475 | +0.0675 | +0.1025 |
Feb | 1.6800 | −0.015 | +0.11 |
Mar | 1.6950 | −0.0275 | +0.11 |
Apr | 1.7225 | −0.030 | +0.11 |
May | 1.7525 | −0.0225 | +0.11 |
Jun | 1.7750 | −0.0175 | +0.11 |
Jul | 1.7925 | +0.105 | +0.11 |
Aug | 1.6875 | — | — |
NYH continues to price at a consistent premium to CU, with margins holding firm.
ITT
Month | Settle | Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec | 1.755 | +0.11 | Dec/Jan +0.075 |
Jan | 1.680 | +0.11 | — |
Technical Picture
Futures remain in a controlled, low-volatility channel, with:
Support: $1.62–$1.63
Resistance: $1.67–$1.69
Momentum: Mildly soft but orderly
Structure: Gradual backwardation with stable premium in Q2 vs Q1
Commercial participation continues to dominate, with no signs of outsized speculative flows.
Summary
Ethanol futures finished last week in a quiet, orderly tone, with Dec closing at $1.645 and spreads easing slightly into January. Production remains steady, and our model continues to center around ~1.110 M b/d for this week’s implied EIA number. Cash markets softened modestly but held structure, with NYH maintaining a consistent premium.
The overall tone entering the new week is steady and balanced, with no major structural shifts expected in the near term.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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